Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/31/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
638 PM MDT Mon May 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation will continue through the overnight hours across
Southwest and portions of Central Montana, especially in north
and east facing upslope areas. Accumulating snow is expected above
7000 feet across these areas, which could lead to slippery and
slick roadways. Finally, areas of fog will be possible Tuesday
morning where recent rains have fallen, and where skies clear out.
&&
.UPDATE...
A northerly low level flow continues to move moisture southward
across the region. Forecast is performing accurately; therefore, no
updates are made, at this time.
- Fogleman
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through tonight...primary forecast concern will be on-
going precipitation chances/amounts through Tuesday morning, in
addition to the potential for fog developing where recent
precipitation has fallen.
Broad H500 trough, with multiple closed lows (one over the Northern
and Central Plains, and the second over the Pacific Northwest), was
in place across much of the Western CONUS/Canada this afternoon.
Over Southwest through North Central Montana beneath this large H500
trough, winds throughout the column were predominately out of the
north to northeast, which continued to support orographically
enhanced precipitation along east and north facing slopes. Expect
precipitation (rain below 6000ft, rain/snow mix between 6000-7000ft,
and all snow above 7000ft) to persist within the aforementioned
upslope areas through the overnight hours tonight, in addition to
much of Southwest and into portions of Central Montana where broad
synoptic scale lift will also remain. Additional precipitation
amounts across these areas of 0.1-0.25" can be expected, with
localized amounts of 0.5-0.75" over the higher terrain of Southwest
Montana. Snowfall amounts above 7000ft across Southwest and Central
Montana of up to 6 inches can generally be expected, with the
exception of the Tobacco Root Mtns, Madison Range, and Gallatin
Range where amounts could approach 12 inches. Precipitation will
gradually wind down from north to south Tuesday morning. Given
recent precipitation across the region and decreasing winds,
especially over Southwest and Central Montana, areas of fog may
develop through Tuesday morning. This will be especially true where
any clearing takes place. - Moldan
Tuesday through next Monday...A gradual transition from light flow
aloft within the broader upper level trough to westerly flow under
weak ridging occurs from Tuesday through the rest of the week for
overall mainly dry conditions with temperatures returning to
seasonal averages. A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
possible, especially near the mountains, but no organized areas of
precipitation are expected. This coming weekend into early next
week, a southwest flow is expected with disturbances ejecting east
out of of a larger scale trough off the west coast. This will bring
an increasing chance for precipitation, including thunderstorms,
especially by early next week. Hoenisch
&&
.AVIATION...
620 PM MDT Mon May 30 2022 (31/00Z TAF period)
KCTB, KHVR:
Expect VFR conditions throughout this TAF period. Periods of gusty
north and northwesterly winds up to 35KT are forecast. Expect
mountain obscuration along The Great Divide.
KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, KEKS, KWYS:
Periods of MVFR conditions are forecast with conditions improving
with time from north to south. KWYS may slip into the IFR range
during the overnight/early morning hours in rain/snow and with low
ceilings. Mountain obscuration is forecast. Periods of gusty north
northwesterly to north northeasterly winds impact light aircraft
near mountains and through north-south oriented mountain valleys.
Additionally, expect poor visibility through mountain
valleys/passes in rain/snow with mist/fog.
- Fogleman
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 39 60 38 68 / 50 0 0 0
CTB 35 60 38 65 / 20 0 0 0
HLN 41 61 40 70 / 50 20 0 10
BZN 38 57 36 65 / 70 30 0 10
WYS 31 50 27 58 / 70 40 20 30
DLN 37 54 35 63 / 60 30 0 10
HVR 39 66 40 70 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 37 57 36 64 / 70 20 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls