Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/01/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
700 PM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
After quite a pleasant day across the area with light winds and
sunny skies, temperatures got into the upper 50s to near 60.
Cloud cover will begin to move into the region tonight from the
west ahead of the next weather system, bringing isolate rain
showers and possible light snow to mountains in Central and
Southwest Montana.
&&
The next weather system impacts the area. Clouds are lowering, and
some areas are experiencing isolated rain showers. The forecast is
working well; therefore, no updates are made at this time.
- Fogleman
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper-level high pressure ridging persists over the region this
afternoon, which brought pleasant weather to the area with light
winds and sunny skies. By early this evening, cloud cover will
increase west to east, foreshadowing the onset of a weather
system. Isolated rain showers and possible light mountain snow is
expected to develop this evening for the Central and Southwest
regions, lasting through Sunday evening. Moisture from this system
will be very minimal, with model guidance from the NBM v4.1
suggesting a 40% chance of the Big Sky and West Yellowstone area
seeing 2 inch of snowfall. Therefore, no required winter weather
advisories will be required for this system.
A weak upper-level ridge remains and the aforementioned system
departs from the region early Monday. After a brief lull, the next
weather system makes its way late Monday into early Tuesday as an
upper-level trough and developed low move across the Western CONUS.
Although this system is looking more promising with regards to
moisture content, there remains uncertainty on the track of the
system, which appears to be on a more southerly trajectory as
suggested by current models. Latest model guidance from NBM v4.1
suggests the Southwest region across Beaverhead, Madison, and
Gallatin counties have a 40% chance of seeing 2 inches, though much
of this will be restricted to mountainous regions and areas of
higher elevation. A Winter Weather Advisory may become necessary for
this event, but due to uncertainty with the trajectory of the low,
confidence remains low at this time.
High pressure ridging redevelops Thursday, bringing some of the
warmest air of the season to the area, with many locations in the
North-central on the cusp of seeing 80 degrees, while much of the
Southwest region will see lower 70s. However, this warmth will be
fugitive as anticipation of yet another weather system will make
its way into the region late Friday into the early portion of the
weekend. At this time, there is low confidence regarding specific
details on accumulation and timing for this system. - Pierce
&&
.AVIATION...
615 PM MDT Sat Apr 30 2022 (01/00Z TAF period)
During this TAF period, the next weather system impacts the area.
KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT and KHLN:
While ceilings lower during this TAF period, conditions remain VFR.
KBZN and KEKS:
Expect VFR conditions with periods when conditions degrade into the
MVFR range in light rain and mist.
Across the region:
Expect mountain obscuration, with periods of breezy
easterly/southeasterly winds. When flying through valleys, light
aircraft should expect impacts due to funneled winds, and also, due
to poor visibility.
- Fogleman
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 57 39 54 33 / 0 20 10 0
CTB 57 40 55 31 / 0 10 10 0
HLN 60 40 56 35 / 10 40 20 0
BZN 58 36 52 32 / 10 30 40 10
WYS 52 28 51 26 / 10 30 60 20
DLN 53 34 52 31 / 20 30 30 0
HVR 62 40 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 55 36 50 32 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls