Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/27/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
803 PM MDT Tue Apr 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A front passing over the region will bring the
opportunity for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two this
afternoon and evening. Another quick system will allow for a few
showers tomorrow across SW Montana before a more potent system moves
into the region Thursday afternoon, bringing rain and snow
&&
.UPDATE...
The atmosphere continues unsettled across the region, favoring areas
of isolated showers, with some gusty winds. The forecast is working
well; therefore, no updates are made at this time.
- Fogleman
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The remainder of today and tomorrow... Upper level ridging across
the region is being replaced by upper troughing, with a series of
embedded waves forecast to pass through over the next day or two.
The first wave will pass through the region this afternoon and
evening paired with a Pacific cold front. Ahead of the front, breezy
southerly to southwesterly winds are ushering in above average
temperatures, even with extensive mid to high cloud cover mitigating
warming in some areas. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
will accompany the Pacific front as it shifts from west to east
across the region the remainder of this afternoon into the evening.
Behind the front tomorrow, temperatures will settle back closer to
average for this time of the year. Another wave will traverse the
region, bringing an opportunity for showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm to Southwest and eastern portions of Central MT in the
afternoon and evening.
Thursday through Saturday... Attention then turns to an upper trough
moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest Thursday morning. This
trough will spawn a storm system that traverses the region Thursday
evening through Saturday morning. Precipitation with this storm
is likely to be mostly rain at lower elevations, with snow
reserved for the terrain, primarily above 5,000 feet elevation.
Winter Storm Watches have been issued to cover possible impacts
along the Continental Divide and the Kings Hill Pass area. Snow
could briefly mix in at lower elevations overnight, but impacts
are expected to be little to none. QPF (Liquid equivalent
precipitation) has been trending upward for much of the region
over the past day or so. Experimental NBM 4.1 guidance gives the
Central Montana corridor (Along and adjacent to MT highway 200) an
~ 60-70% chance to receive 0.50" QPF or more with this system.
The system moves out Saturday, yielding a brief period of benign
weather. -AM
Sunday into next week... An active weather pattern continues across
the region following the Friday storm with additional troughing
likely to move across the region by early next week. Confidence is
still low at this point however on timing and track details.
Hoenisch
&&
.AVIATION...
625 PM MDT Tue Apr 26 2022 (27/00Z TAF period)
KCTB, KGTF and KHLN:
VFR conditions prevail throughout this forecast period. Expect
mountain obscuration. Periods of gusty winds are forecast with the
strongest winds expected during the earlier hours of this TAF
period.
KHVR, KLWT, KBZN and KEKS:
Begin this TAF period with predominant VFR conditions. Expect
periods of predominant/intermittent MVFR conditions in light rain
showers and mist. Mountain obscuration is forecast. Periods of
breezy to gusty winds are forecast.
Throughout the region, light aircraft aviation ops can expect
impacts, in terms of turbulence, near mountains and through valleys.
Additional impacts to light aircraft should be expected through
valleys due to poor visibility in mist or fog in areas where winds
have decreased.
- Fogleman
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 32 58 29 58 / 20 0 10 10
CTB 32 51 28 54 / 20 10 0 0
HLN 33 59 33 60 / 20 10 10 20
BZN 31 57 31 59 / 30 30 30 20
WYS 23 54 23 52 / 10 50 20 50
DLN 30 55 29 57 / 10 20 0 30
HVR 35 59 33 60 / 60 0 10 0
LWT 31 56 31 57 / 30 20 40 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
night Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Jefferson...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls