Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/16/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Phoenix AZ

 625 PM MST Fri Apr 15 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...
A steady warming trend will be observed across the
region the next few days with dry conditions continuing. Afternoon
highs will increase to slightly above normal today and eventually to
near 10 degrees above normal by early next week. The warmest days
will reach the mid and upper 90s for the lower deserts. Temperatures
decrease slightly towards the second half of next week but remain
above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper air analysis shows dry, zonal westerly flow aloft across
the region with slightly positive geopotential height anomalies at
H500. A deep W-E trough remains centered across the northwest to
northcentral CONUS. Closer to the surface, pressure gradients
remain quite minimal across Arizona with fairly light winds at
this time. PWAT values are very low with the latest ACARS
soundings showing values around 0.2" inches. There is one moist
layer near H250 with a few cirrus clouds noted over the area on
visible satellite.


Little change is expected in the weather pattern over the next 24
hours except for a glancing blow from a shortwave trough to the
north on Saturday. The majority of the atmospheric response will be
at and above the H700 layer with a 60-70 kt jet developing at H500
over northern Arizona. The response will be more muted at the
surface with wind gusts perhaps reaching 20-30 mph or so. Thermal
effects will be minimal at the surface, such that high
temperatures will likely increase through the weekend and into the
low 90s.

Behind this feature upper level heights will quickly rebound, with
H500 heights climbing to 582-585dm Sunday to Monday. This
corresponds to roughly the 90-95th percentile height climatology
for this time of year. This will lead to even warmer surface
temperatures, likely in the upper 90s. ECMWF EFI values max out
around 0.7, representing a somewhat anomalous event, but below
record values. NBM max temperatures remain largely unchanged for
Phoenix with a pair of 97s on Monday and Tuesday, and around a
20-30% chance of reaching 100F. Values are similar for the Yuma
and El Centro areas.

There continue to be indications that a stronger trough will make a
closer pass to the forecast area towards the end of next week. WPC
cluster analysis shows definite uncertainty with respect to the
timing and amplitude of this feature but fairly good agreement that
temperatures will at least drop into the 80s with a corresponding
increase in wind speed and cloud cover. Rainfall looks very unlikely
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0125Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No significant weather issues will exist through the TAF period.
Current westerly winds to continue thru the evening hours. A later-
than-usual switch to light easterly is likely sometime after
midnight. Good confidence exists that S-SW winds will settle over
the metro earlier than usual Saturday (by late Saturday morning),
then gradually veer to westerly in the afternoon with more
pronounced gusts 20-25kt. These westerly winds are then expected to
persist well into Saturday, likely not becoming easterly until
shortly before daybreak on Sunday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Periods of stronger wind gusts during the late afternoon and evening
hours will be the main weather issue through Saturday under
thickening cirrus decks. Similar to Thursday, gusts 20-30kt may
occasionally affect aerodromes, especially KIPL this evening before
partially decoupling overnight. S/SW winds may be more persistent
Saturday with a more prolonged period of gustiness during the
afternoon/early evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday: Dry conditions and well above normal
temperatures will persist through the forecast period. Wind speeds
will be typical for mid April with the usual afternoon gusts of 15-
25 mph, although breezier conditions are possible by Friday with
gusts of 25-30 mph. Min RH will stay in mostly in the 5-10% range
through Wednesday, climbing to 10-20% by Friday. Overnight recovery
of 15-35% early in the week will improve to 30-50% by Friday. In
most cases the highest RH values will be found over the higher
terrain and the Imperial Valley.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Hodges
AVIATION...Percha/18
FIRE WEATHER...Hodges/Sawtelle