Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/31/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

 815 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy southerly winds and warm temps tonight. A cold front
will cross the area on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may be strong to severe. Mainly dry weather is
expected behind the front on Friday with near to slightly above
normal temperatures expected through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Warm front has pushed north of the FA. Breezy south winds
continue. Lake Wind Advisory in effect. South winds overnight
plus some cloud cover to provide above normal temps tonight.
Squall line well to our west expected to weaken some late
tonight as it approaches our FA. Latest high res models keep
that activity just west of our FA at daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Summary: There is a low chance of severe weather on Thursday.
Damaging winds from thunderstorms will be the primary threat.
The area of greatest concern is in the southern CSRA (south of
Augusta, GA) eastward to the I-95 corridor. Showers and
thunderstorms will move from west to east pushing through the
central Midlands during the late morning and east of the FA by
late afternoon.

Thursday morning: A large upper level trough will be over much of
the central US on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will be
pushing across the Deep South during the pre-dawn hours. Ongoing
convection ahead of the front will likely move into the western FA
around or shortly after sunrise along with a 50 to 60 kt 850 mb jet.
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect due to the strong gradient winds
expected. The strength of the convection during the morning hours is
uncertain due to poor lapse rates. With little surface based
instability expected, widespread severe weather is unlikely.
Although we can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm which produces
damaging winds from mixing down the stronger winds aloft. The
tornado threat is low during the morning mainly because of the lack
of instability and shallow inflow layer. Thunderstorms should mainly
be confined to the southern half of the FA.

Thursday afternoon: Some destabilization may occur across the
eastern FA during the afternoon. Warm, moist advection ahead of the
front will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 70s by early
afternoon. Weak sbCAPE values should promote scattered thunderstorms
in the southern and eastern Midlands as the previously mentioned
line of convection continues eastward. CAMs generally show the line
into the eastern FA by the early afternoon as east of the FA
entirely by mid or late afternoon. The NAM stands out as an outlier,
much slower than other model guidance. Despite the slightly higher
sbCAPE values the threat of severe weather remains low in the
afternoon because the deeper shear and 850 mb jet will have moved
north of the FA. Weaker shear and lower SRH values suggest that
convection may be disorganized. Some model guidance indicates better
lapse rates later in the afternoon, but this should be after drier
air has begun pushing in from the west which will inhibit additional
development. The threat of flash flooding is low due to dry
antecedent conditions and quick storm motion. SPC SREF members
indicate storm total precip amounts are likely to range from half an
inch to 1 inch.

Overnight, dry air will continue pushing into the region preventing
additional rainfall. Winds will stay up overnight keeping
temperatures in the 50s or upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region on Friday bringing drier
weather. Expect mainly fair weather across the forecast area
during the weekend with partly to mostly sunny skies. The
combination of a passing mid-level shortwave and modest PWATs
could produce a few showers late Saturday into Saturday night
but models suggest that amounts would be light. Measurable
rainfall over the weekend is unlikely. Monday will be dry with
the next chance of rain arriving on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Daytime temperatures in the extended will be near to slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR expected this evening and early overnight. A strong cold
front with associated showers and thunderstorms will push
through Thursday morning from west to east. MVFR (possibly IFR)
expected as this line moves through.

The pressure gradient over the area continues to tighten as the
front nears the area. Winds have consistently gusted out of the
south over 20 knots this afternoon and will generally remain up
overnight, only weakening slightly. Current ACARs soundings are
showing 30+ knots at 2k feet and this will continue to increase
overnight. LLWS is included for all sites starting at 0400 UTC,
with 2k foot expected to reach 50 knots and surface will
generally remain below 20 knots. LLWS will likely continue
through late morning as the low level jet passes through the
region. Showers and, possible thunderstorms, are expected to
begin around 1300 UTC at CAE, CUB, AGS, and DNL, an hour later
at OGB. Gusty winds and some embedded thunderstorms will be
possible as this line moves through. Will include a tempo for
IFR vis, stronger winds, and heavy showers in the next update,
starting at 1400 UTC. Confidence is somewhat low in the
probability of thunder at any terminal, so planning on holding
off on including TS for now but it is certaintly possible it
will added later. Regardless, gusty winds over 20 knots will
continue during and after the line, turning from the south to
southwest by later in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected after the
frontal passage Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...