Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/24/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
406 PM MST Wed Mar 23 2022
.UPDATE... 0z Aviation Discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and lighter winds will settle in for the rest of
the week with a significant warming trend also occurring through
Saturday. Well above normal temperatures are expected Friday
through the weekend with high temperatures topping out well into
the 90s across lower desert communities, with a few daily records
possible. A weather system early next week is anticipated to bring
a slight cool down and could bring a chance for rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and objective analysis still show a highly amplified
pattern across the CONUS with a deep multi-wave low circulation
through the middle portions of the country. The central
circulation is slowly pushing away and winds locally are finally
weakening as a result. Ridging is now spreading into the western
CONUS, which will bring a significant warm-up to the area and
keep winds on the light side over the next few days. Aircraft
soundings and daily radiosondes show very little change in the
thermal profile over the last 24 hours, if not, a slight (1-2C)
cooldown in the lower troposphere. Temperatures this afternoon
will likely be similar to yesterday and then the bigger warm-up
will come in the following days.
There has been very little change in the forecast since this
morning`s package. The ridge will provide the warmest temperatures
of the year so far, pushing highs 10-15+ degrees above normal
heading into the weekend with a few daily records in reach. Still
anticipating an increase in high clouds Friday into the weekend,
which could become several thousand feet thick at times, but NBM
temperature spreads remain small and confidence high in 90+ degree
forecasts. Continuing to interrogate model outlooks for next week,
but there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the
progression and evolution of a Pacific low. Biggest uncertainty,
based on WPC cluster analysis, is the timing and depth of the
low, with several EPS members trending a bit slower and lower in
amplitude than the GEFS membership. This is reflected in the mean
H5 fields. The majority of ensemble members do at least push the
low/trough through the region, with a mean time around Monday-
Tuesday. The low/trough is anticipate to cool temperatures back
down and NBM PoPs are around 20-30%.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The warmest temperatures so far this year are a guarantee by Friday
as the high pressure ridge to our west shifts over our region. The
ridge center well west of southern California is currently
indicating 500mb heights of 588dm, or near record for the climo
period. The ridge will weaken a bit as it shifts over our region by
Friday, but forecast 500mb heights of 582-584dm are within reach for
us, or around 97-99% of climo. Forecast high temperatures rise
quickly over the next few days, reaching 90 degrees across the
western deserts on Thursday and easily into the lower 90s to
possibly 95 degrees on Friday. The warmest day should end up being
Saturday with the ridge axis moving overhead Friday night with a
slight drop off in temperatures into Sunday. Forecast highs Saturday
are currently in the mid 90s for Phoenix to as high as the upper 90s
across the western deserts of southeast California and the Lower CO
River Valley. These temperatures are fairly unusual for the last
week of March and very well could tie or even break records. Looking
at Phoenix`s records, the forecast high of 94 degrees on Friday
provides a 75% probability of breaking the current record of 93
degrees. Yuma shows an 30% probability of breaking their record high
of 99 degrees on Saturday, while El Centro has as high of an 80%
chance of breaking their Friday`s record of 94 degrees. Daily
records for all three locations for Friday through Sunday can be
found in the climate section near the bottom of this product.
Relief from the warmest temperatures so far this year is expected by
early next week as a deep upper level trough is shown approaching
from the west Sunday into Monday. Ensemble guidance is still
somewhat uncerta FM241000 33005KT P6SM SKCin on the strength and
the timing of the expected weather system, but agree it will move
through our region at some point early next week. The eastward
trajectory off the Pacific should also result in better moisture
into our region than the past several systems and this is mostly
represented within the ensemble moisture fields. However, given
the system is at least five days out, model uncertainty is still
high enough to keep PoPs below 30%. Forecast temperatures do drop
off next week, but not all that dramatically since the weather
system will be coming from the west. Highs should fall back to
around normal by Tuesday, possibly hovering around normal through
the rest of the next week with broad troughing favored across the
Western U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2305Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Just in the last few minutes, westerly component appears to be
finally winning out at PHX. Gusts of 12-16kt are possible for a
short time until mixing begins to relax after sunset. Later
tonight, winds will switch out of the east around 6Z, with a
couple hours of variability as this takes place. Lighter pressure
gradient will allow for a more typical light/diurnal wind cycle
tomorrow. Clear skies persist.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Extended periods of light and variable winds are forecast for both
terminals the next 24 hours. Only exception would be IPL where
light west breezes are anticipated tonight. Clear skies persist.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday:
Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend with unseasonably
warm temperatures. High temperatures in the 90s are expected
across most lower deserts through Sunday. Winds will be fairly
light on Friday and Saturday, but turn breezy on Sunday with
afternoon gusts of 20-25 mph. A cool down is then anticipated
through early next week as a weather system moves through the
region. Min RHs will be below 10% through the weekend most
locations before increasing to 20-25% by Tuesday. Overnight
recoveries will mostly be around 20-30%, increasing to 40-60%
next week. The weather system early next week could bring a chance
for rain, but uncertainty remains high and CWRs are currently at
most 20-30% over the high terrain north and east of Phoenix.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures:
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro
---- ------- ---- ---------
3/25 93 (1990) 99 (1896) 94 (1988)
3/26 100 (1988) 99 (1988) 98 (1988)
3/27 98 (1986) 100 (1986) 99 (1988)
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...Benedict
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Heil
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...18