Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/22/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA

 953 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

.DISCUSSION...
The inherited grid package is progressing in line with the
incoming frontal system. Timing and PoPs look good, and thus no
updates are planned.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/

AVIATION...
Looking at storms in northern Jasper... Tyler and Newton counties
at this time running northward into the lakes region. Elsewhere...
showers over the southeast Texas coastal waters are racing
northward with this pattern continuing through the overnight
hours. Storm activity will shift eastward although individual
cells will continue the northward run into the sfc low that is
located over north Texas attm. Ceilings... vsby... winds... will
all be issues for aircraft tonight. Then the squall line that will
be moving in towards sunrise or tomorrow for Texas and after sunrise
for southern Louisiana. Flight conditions generally MVFR/IFR for
ceilings then vsby issues with the squall line due to storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
Very active weather pattern for the next 24 hours or so. Strong to
severe storms are expected to develop into a line by early Tuesday
morning near Houston and move east across our entire region on
Tuesday. Per SPC, all modes of severe weather are possible,
including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. In fact,
there is a chance some of the tornadoes could be strong (EF-2 or
more).

This line of storms will be in southeast Texas between 5 am and
10 am, southwest Louisiana between 8 am and 1 pm, south central
Louisiana between 11 am and 4 pm, and central Louisiana between 8
am and 2 pm.

Models today show this line moving faster then it did yesterday,
so rainfall totals will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches. However
you can still see roads flood when that rain falls in a short time
frame.

Windy conditions continue through this evening, so carrying the
wind advisory through 1 am tonight.

LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
A mainly quiet period weather wise as a surface ridge builds down
from the Northern Plains bringing cooler conditions through the end
of the week. Looks like both high and low temperatures will be below
seasonal norms. Meanwhile, Dry northwest flow aloft will keep things
on the dry side and no significant shower activity will be noted.

Over the weekend, the high will move off to the east, and this will
allow for southerly flow off the Gulf to warm temperatures and
gradually bring more humid conditions. Upper level ridging will be
in place to keep any significant shower activity out of the
forecast.

Rua

MARINE...

Keeping the small craft advisory as winds stay strong for the next
2 days. So far it looks to stay below gale warning criteria.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ029-032-033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027-028-030-031.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ215-216.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ435-450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through
     Wednesday morning for GMZ430-432.


&&

$$