Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/18/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

 836 PM EDT Thu Mar 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure and an upper level ridge will be over the
area tonight with fog around daybreak. Active weather returns
on Friday as a cold front approaches with another round of
showers and thunderstorms expected late Friday possibly lasting
into Saturday. High pressure moves in behind the front Saturday
and we should see dry weather through early next week with a
warming trend Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As the coastal low to our northeast moves farther offshore, weak
surface high pressure and upper level ridging will build in.
However, another shortwave and surface low across the central
US will keep us sandwiched and prevent strong low level ridging
from developing. Dry air aloft will keep skies clear overnight
but ample moisture at low levels persisted today. With only a
weak surface pressure gradient and generally good radiational
cooling conditions, fog/stratus looks likely in the morning.
Fog vs stratus will depend on how much the surface can decouple
which will depend on the strength of any low level jet. Recent
VAD and ACARS soundings are generally close to expected
regarding winds and dewpoints have recovered a bit into the mid
50`s; cross over temps are in the low 50`s. Hi- res guidance
appears to be on track, but as always fog events are tricky.
Winds will go calm in the next few hours, and temps will then
quickly fall into the upper 40`s and low 50`s. Any fog that does
develop will last through the morning commute and will be
potentially dense.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore on Friday and provides the region
with dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures.

A powerful upper level trough moves just north of The Midlands
and CSRA Friday Night into Saturday. The GFS is the fastest
solution with the EC/NAM about six hours slower with a pre
frontal trough. Either solution brings the risk of severe
weather with SBCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/KG, low level
directional shear, and a 50 to 60 mph 850 mb jet streak.
Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with hail and
tornadoes also possible.

The upper trough moves closer to the coast Saturday afternoon
and offshore Saturday Night through Sunday. Expect breezy
conditions Saturday afternoon and winds will stay up Saturday
Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be in control of the weather across the
Southeast U.S. from Sunday Night through Tuesday Night with
temperatures slowly warming during that time period.

Ensemble guidance shows another strong upper trough moving
across the region in the Wednesday through Thursday time
frame. At this time, this system has the potential for
strong/severe thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions through much of the period with IFR/LIFR expected
from early morning through late morning.

Weak high pressure will be over the region tonight and with
plenty of ground moisture fog is the main focus. Expect IFR TO
LIFR fog to develop during the early morning hours and with
light and variable winds persist through 14z...possibly longer.
As the fog mixes out VFR conditions will dominate the remainder
of the period with increasing as the next cold front approaches
the region. Have included VCSH at AGS/DNL very late in the
period. Winds will be light and variable through 17z then become
southerly around 7 knots through the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Friday
through midday Saturday as low pressure and a cold front move
through the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$