Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/15/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
731 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The cap broke shortly after the previous discussion was issued and
widespread storms have since developed ahead of a dryline and
along a Pacific cold front. The front is currently along a line
from Gainesville to DFW to Waco and will continue moving east this
evening. Expect a slight uptick in thunderstorm activity as the
front approaches the dryline, with hail continuing to be the
primary threat with tonight`s storms. There is a narrow corridor,
roughly along I-45 extending north into Bonham, where the surface
winds are turned just right and the LCLs are just low enough to
support a few right moving rotating supercells capable of
producing brief funnel clouds or tornadoes. We will have to
continue to monitor this corridor as storms move into/through
this region.
Expect the entire storm cluster to move out of the region to the
east tonight by around midnight (along with the front) with the
exception of our far NE counties along the Red River. As the core
of the upper low moves overhead, convection is expected to
continue through the early morning hours and into tomorrow morning.
While most of this elevated activity should remain sub-severe, low
freezing levels and steep lapse rates aloft should allow for a few
over-achieving updrafts to be capable of producing severe hail.
This is most likely from about Grayson County east and north of
I-30 after midnight.
A surface low will deepen to our east tomorrow, allowing for cool
north winds to prevail locally. Wrap around moisture and stratus
will work into the eastern half of the region, keeping the
temperatures in the low 60s for those generally east of ~I-45.
Temperatures should climb into the low 70s further west as the
insolation counteracts any cold advection.
Bonnette
Previous Discussion: /Issued 358 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/
Mesoscale Update:
Latest ACARS (Aircraft) soundings still indicate a capping
inversion over the area as of 3 PM. However, the trend over the
past couple hours is that the cap is quickly weakening while the
lapse rates above the cap continue to increase as large scale mid-
level ascent overspreads the region.
There are two surface features we are monitoring this afternoon.
The first is a weak dryline between Fort Worth and Mineral Wells
evident in a sharp isodrosotherm gradient. This boundary extends
north toward Wichita Falls and south toward Lampasas. This will
slowly move east over the next few hours. Its slow movement will
be a favorable ingredient for convective initiation (CI) as
parcels remain in the area of forced ascent for a longer period of
time. Ahead of the boundary, agitated Cu is most prevalent near
and just southwest of the Metroplex where the tightest moisture
gradient is observed. The favored area for deep CI will be ahead
of the dryline where the cap is weakest. At this time, this is
most likely along and just east of I-35W, roughly between Fort
Worth and Waco, between 4-5 PM. The main threat will be large hail
with the initial storms, but damaging wind gusts will also be
possible given the ample dry air that will promote downdraft
acceleration. The tornado threat is low, but not zero.
The second surface feature, a Pacific cold front, will catch up to
the dryline and provide ample low level ascent to overcome any cap
along the entire I-35 corridor by about 5-6 PM. While storms are
expected to initially develop as discrete storms along the
dryline, strong forced ascent along the front will allow for
upscale growth into a more linear convective mode this evening
and tonight. A linear cluster of storms is expected to move across
the eastern half of the forecast area tonight, with a hail and
damaging wind threat. Brief spin-up tornadoes are possible along
the leading edge of this bow, but again, the tornado threat is low
with this event.
A majority of the convective activity will exit the forecast area
to the south and east around midnight to 1AM. The core of the cold
core upper low will move east along the Red River tonight,
supporting further development of a few elevated strong storms
capable of producing small hail through the early morning hours
until the upper low moves into East Texas tomorrow.
Bonnette
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 148 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022/
/Tuesday Night Onward/
High pressure will dominate at the surface Wednesday as the upper
low responsible for Monday`s storms continues exiting to the east.
Breezy south flow will return to North & Central Texas by midday
Wednesday as the next storm system develops with a deepening upper
trough over the Four Corners and its associated lee side low. Before
this system is set to arrive, conditions Wednesday and most of
Thursday will be on the warm side, with high temperatures
reaching the mid 70s (East TX) to mid 80s (Big Country) Wednesday.
As ridging aloft continues, Thursday`s temperatures will reach
roughly 5 to 15 degrees above normal areawide, climbing into the
upper 70s to mid 80s.
The next cold front is set to arrive in the late afternoon and
evening Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop near and along the front. There remains some uncertainty
in the exact track of the system, which impacts where the best
rain/storm chances will end up. The main upper level support will
set up along the Red River and northward, but enough lift and
instability should be in place to support the development of
thunderstorms. These showers and storms will exit to the east
overnight/Friday morning, and cooler temperatures behind the
front will result in a fairly pleasant end to the work week with
highs reaching the mid 60s/low 70s.
A breezy week and fuels continuing to dry out near/west of I-35 will
mean elevated fire weather conditions persisting most days this
week in the aformentioned area. The exact extent of the elevated
fire weather threat will vary each day but generally won`t extend
further east than the I-35 corridor. Relative humidity values
will continue to drop below 30 percent, especially along and west
of U.S. 281, increasing the threat for fires. With many western
zones not receiving much appreciable precipitation in recent
months, these conditions will likely worsen with warming
temperatures if the lack of rainfall continues. Follow local
guidelines/burn bans and continue to exercise caution with
anything that could produce a spark and/or initiate fires.
After the upper level trough exits to the east Friday, quiet and
rain-free weather will return for the weekend. A warming trend is
anticipated thanks to higher heights building overhead, with
afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s again by Sunday.
The next system is set to arrive early next week, just outside of
the forecast period. Given it`s a week out, quite a bit of
uncertainty is in place with any rain/storm chances so these will
be refined in future updates.
Gordon
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Thunderstorms will continue to march east across the D10 airspace
for the next couple hours. The western D10 terminals are likely
in the clear from on-station thunder while DFW, GKY, and DAL will
have the threat of thunder on station through ~01-02Z. VCTS was
retained through 02Z as the storms slowly advance east and impact
DEP/ARR. Cold FROPA is bringing gusty west-northwest winds to the
D10 terminals, facilitating a change to north flow after the TS
threat passes. Gusty NW winds around 15-20 KT will prevail through
the remainder of the valid TAF period.
Wrap around moisture will move into the area early tomorrow
morning, bringing high-end MVFR to low VFR ceilings back into
the region after about 14Z. Those ceilings should lift and scatter
to VFR late in the afternoon.
Bonnette
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 67 45 77 53 / 70 5 0 0 0
Waco 48 71 44 78 50 / 50 0 0 0 0
Paris 49 63 44 71 49 / 100 90 0 0 0
Denton 45 66 39 77 49 / 50 5 0 0 0
McKinney 46 65 43 75 50 / 100 10 0 0 0
Dallas 48 66 46 75 53 / 80 5 0 0 0
Terrell 47 65 43 74 50 / 100 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 47 65 46 75 51 / 100 5 0 0 0
Temple 49 72 42 79 49 / 50 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 42 69 40 81 50 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$