Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/05/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1000 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022
...New UPDATE, FIRE WEATHER...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022
Currently, RHs are starting to recover across the region, with
winds remaining elevated overnight. Have allowed the Red Flag
Warning to expire as scheduled, though have elected to maintain
the Fire Weather Watch for Saturday given uncertainty in the
extent of critical fire weather conditions, particularly across
eastern portions of the Permian Basin where ERCs aren`t quite as
high. The remainder of the forecast remains on track this evening,
with a mild, breezy night ahead as lows drop into the 40s and 50s
for most.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022
Gusty S to SW wind may briefly drop off after sunset but should
stay up overnight do to a LLJ. Wind will shift around to the W
overnight as Pacific front moves through. A High Wind Warning
remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains tonight and
Saturday... severe aircraft turbulence will be possible in the
vicinity of the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022
Multiple headlines for the next 36 hrs. Currently have a shortwave
trough situated out west through the Great Basin down to the MX
border. This wave will eject eastward over the next few days with
a speed max rotating out ahead of the mean trough axis bringing
windy conditions to our northwest zones like Eddy county in NM and
the adjacent Guadalupes. Winds will be increasing into high wind
territory over the Guadalupes this afternoon, continuing overnight
into tomorrow where winds will be at their strongest. High wind
warning will remain in effect through early tomorrow evening as a
result. Plains to the east and south will remain elevated in the
winds as well, but the speeds will remain a shade under advisory
criteria outside perhaps a few infrequent gusts for an area like
Artesia to Hope. Today`s bigger threat remains a fire weather
concern thanks to RHs slipping below 12% for a large chunk of our
western forecast area. Considering the alignment of the strongest
winds with the lowest RHs across aforementioned areas above, a Red
Flag Warning remains in effect for this afternoon and evening as
well (More in the Fire Wx disco below).
A swift moving Pac front will traverse the area overnight with
drier air moving back across the entire CWA, vanquishing the
dryline well to the east of our neck of the woods. Winds will be
elevated across the northern half of the CWA thanks to a
persistent jet pattern aligned overhead as the shortwave passes
through our latitude to the north. Again, advisory criteria speeds
are still not forecast, but could be close for our northern tier,
so will be something to monitor for the next shift if trends tick
up. Fire weather concerns will be at least near-critical again
tomorrow, but for a much larger swath of the forecast area (More
in the Fire Wx disco below).
Temperatures today will be the warmest of the period with
widespread M70s to L-M80s with even some 90s showing up down in
the Rio Grande thanks to a strong thermal ridge axis positioned
right up through the Big Bend up to the Western Permian Basin.
Lows will remain mild tonight with 40s and 50s likely for a
majority of the forecast area. Highs will be about 5-10 degrees
cooler tomorrow thanks to the PAC front ushering the thermal ridge
axis into the Rio Concho, but still above normal for the time of
year. Precip chances remain nill.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022
Sunday, the upper trough is forecast to be just west of the the
Four corners at 12Z, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under southwest flow aloft. It goes without saying that this will
develop a fairly strong mountain wave signature over the
Guadalupes, and we`ve expanded the watch there temporally based on
latest model guidance. Wind advisories on the adjacent plains look
likely, as well. East of this, a dryline will sharpen up over the
western Permian Basin, with a cold front stalling over the South
Plains during the day. This will put a triple point invof KLBB
during the morning Sunday, and isolated convection over the
Western Low Rolling Plains cannot be ruled out as a result. These
winds will add a downslope warming component for unseasonably warm
temperatures Sunday afternoon, especially in the east, where
temperatures will warm ahead of the Pac front the longest.
Needless to say, all this will result in critical fire weather
conditions for most of the FWA Sunday. See fire weather discussion
below for more details.
The foregoing stalled cold front will resume its southward
progress Sunday night, bringing an end to the pleasant weather
of late and ushering in below-normal temperatures Monday, and even
colder temperatures on Tuesday. The upshot is that this will put
the kibosh on critical fire weather, at least for a few days.
Meanwhile, a secondary trough will approach the region, moving
through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico anywhere from Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night, depending on one`s model of
choice. An interesting feature of the new model runs is that they
develop high east winds through the Guadalupes Tuesday night and
Wednesday in response to a very tight pressure gradient due to a
strong surface trough over Chihuahua, and this will have to be
watched.
Otherwise, temperatures attempt to recover Wednesday and even
climb above normal most locations Thursday, but a secondary cold
front late Thursday afternoon/night will once again take
temperatures below normal Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CST Fri Mar 4 2022
Fire wx will be tricky the next 24 hours, and largely dependent on
recovery overnight. Currently, relative humidity out west is just
hitting critical levels, and will continue dropping through around
00Z. As southwest flow picks up over the mountains, RFTI should
increase to 5-7 by late afternoon. Overnight, recovery looks to be
poor over much of the west, especially in the lee of the
mountains, and moderate to excellent east. Saturday, the LLTR is
forecast to weaken somewhat over today, but will extend from the
Big Bend up through the Texas Panhandle and areas east. The 500mb
jet is forecast to weaken over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, but the core will still intersect the LLTR right through
Southeast New Mexico and the South Plains/northern Permian Basin.
RFTIs of 4-5 are expected out west, coincident with ERCs in the
50th-75th percentile. Farther east, while RFTIs of only 3 or so
are anticipated, ERCs will be a notch higher in the 75th-90th
percentile. A quick glance at the TT WRF suggests even higher RFTI
will be possible from the upper Trans Pecos through the Western
Low Rolling Plains. Given very little expected cloud cover
Saturday, which will provide ample insolation to dry out fine
fuels, we`ve gone ahead and issued a watch for Southeast New
Mexico and adjacent parts of West Texas.
Given all that, Sunday looks to be the most critical fire weather
day this forecast as the upper trough arrives. The LLTR will
strengthen, and extend once again from the Big Bend through the
Texas Panhandle. The 500mb jet will run SW-NE through Southeast New
Mexico. High winds are expected in the Guadalupe/Delawares,
bleeding out onto the adjacent plains during the day. Single-digit
minimum relative humidity is forecast area-wide, resulting in
widespread RFTI of 5-7 over most of the FWA, with even some 8 over
the Davis Mountains and adjacent areas. This will require a
widespread watch/warning when the time comes.
Fortunately, a cold front Sunday night will bring an end to critical
fire weather over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, at least for
a few days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 53 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 10
Carlsbad 44 72 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 52 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 47 79 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 42 63 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 44 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 36 71 32 75 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 48 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 50 74 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 45 75 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Saturday through
Saturday evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-
Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-
Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Saturday for
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains.
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM MST Saturday through Saturday
evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...72
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
510 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022
.UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion.
.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler and more active weather is returning to the Desert
Southwest. As multiple weather systems move through the area...
isolated to scattered showers are in the forecast through
Saturday. The highest chance of rain and isolated thunder arrives
this afternoon and evening. Periods of gusty winds are also
expected through tomorrow, with the strongest gusts over portions
of Southeast California. Below normal temperatures will persist
into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy and bright conditions reigned supreme this morning but so
have the breezes. The strongest wind gusts have been observed in
western Imperial County in the Fish Creek and Jacumba Mountains
with gusts nearing 40 mph but 20-25 mph gusts have been common
everywhere. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for western Imperial
County through today. Temperatures around Arizona are noticeably
cooler running 4 to 8 degrees lower compared to this time yesterday.
Afternoon highs will settle in the upper 60s to low 70s today.
The driver of todays cooler and breezy weather shows well on
water vapor imagery just west of here. There, a well defined mid
level low is passing through SoCal and about to knock on the
western Arizona door. This system will quickly pass through the
region and eject over the southern Rockies by late tonight/early
Saturday morning. As this occurs, we will be looking at a window
for showers and possibly some convection, particularly as a
vorticity maximum near the lows southern periphery moves through.
Already, a few echoes have already been seen across southeastern
CA/southwestern AZ and Phoenix metro but reports indicate very
little rain has been recorded.
Latest hi-res ensemble guidance shows chances for rain in south-
central Arizona peaking within the next couple of hours or so and
slowly diminishing through the evening. Guidance is still bearish
on rainfall totals staying at or below 0.10 with only a 15% to
25% chance for seeing 0.25 total by late tonight, primarily
favoring the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. Overall,
most people will probably end the night disappointed by the
results from their backyard rain gauges. Still, potential for an
isolated thunderstorm or convective showers for today remains.
Guidance indicators and todays conceptual evolution, at least
so far, show steepening mid level lapse rates and increasing CAPE
(might peak between 250 to 500 j/kg MUCAPE) across protons of
south-central AZ this afternoon as the aforementioned vort max
rolls through. The last several aircraft soundings and a billowy
field of cu with darkening bottoms support this. Where convection
does play a role, expect higher rainfall rates/totals, lightning,
and strong gusty winds. Areas of blowing dust may also occur from
wind gusts produced by showers and/or consistently elevated
gradient winds (i.e., southeastern CA and southwestern AZ).
For Saturday, another strong Pacific low will push into the western
CONUS but guidance trajectories continue to favor the main core
remaining to our north. If this holds, most of Saturdays
precipitation will struggle to penetrate the lower desert with PoPs
quickly dropping into the single digits south and west of a line
between Parker-Buckeye-Casa Grande. Just like today, most reasonable
rainfall totals will be light (at or below 0.10). However, this
system will reinforce cold air advection so afternoon temperatures
are anticipated to reach their lowest Sunday with highs struggling
to reach the mid 60s.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Extended Forecast: The overall pattern remains stagnant across
the West, with a general trough remaining overhead. Two more
disturbances are showing up on medium range ensemble guidance this
week (arriving Monday night and again on Thursday). These
features are diving SSE with little available moisture. Ensemble
precipitation plumes are very unimpressed, and a vast majority are
dry. With many big outdoor events ongoing this time of year in
our area, it is a good time to be reminded that changes in the
exact track/strength of these features could lead us to introduce
rain chances in later forecasts. Temperatures will struggle to
reach normal for early March until at least Wednesday. If the
second system digs farther south on Thursday than anticipated, we
may feel one more batch of cooler air with it. GEFS/EPS/GEPS
families are actually in fairly strong agreement that after that
system departs, mid-level heights will steadily rise over the
Southwest. You guessed it: that means much warmer weather could
quickly return just beyond the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0010Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT
Gusty W to SW winds will prevail through this evening, with speeds
mostly in the low to mid teens and gusts up to 20-25 kts. Scattered
showers/isolated TS that have been affecting the Phoenix area this
afternoon are now diminishing as the sfc cold front that helped
trigger the showers move off to the east and diurnal heating is
lost. The best chance for an additional shower at KPHX/KIWA will be
in the next hour or so. Lingering showers will still be possible at
KSDL/KDVT through around 7Z before pushing more into the mountains.
There is still a remote (10%) chance for a thunderstorm as well,
along with a gust >30 kts, and small hail. Overnight, expecting the
winds to shift to a southeasterly direction around/shortly after
midnight, with SCT-BKN CIGS in the 5-8k foot range. CIGS to become
BKN-OVC in the 5-7k foot along with a bit stronger southeasterly
winds Saturday morning as the next sfc cold front approaches from
the west. A shift in the winds to southwesterly can be expected only
the front passes around midday on Saturday and become quite gusty
during the afternoon/early evening hours, but CIGS are not expected
to lift/clear until mid/late-evening on Saturday.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
At KIPL breezy westerly winds will continue through the TAF period,
with gusts up to around 30 kts thru Saturday morning, with gusts as
high as 35 kts Saturday afternoon, allow with a chance for some
blowing dust. At KBLH, current gusts in the 20-30 kts range will
diminish overnight/early Saturday, then increase once again Saturday
afternoon, along with an outside chance for some blowing dust.
Few to scattered cloud decks around 6-8 kft through late
tonight/early Saturday at both terminals, then mainly CLR thereafter.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday:
Below normal temperatures persist for much of this period. Light
winds are forecast Sunday. However, winds should pick back up
across the western districts on Monday into Tuesday with gusts
into the 25-30 mph range possible. Minimum humidities will mostly
be in a 20-30% range over the weekend before dropping into the
teens early next week.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for CAZ562.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...12
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Percha/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Heil