Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/03/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

 951 PM EST Wed Mar 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be above normal through Monday with the
exception of Friday when a backdoor cold front brings clouds and
near normal readings. The warmest days during the forecast
period should be Sunday and Monday with daytime temperatures
nearing record values. Dry weather is likely until late Monday
when moisture significantly increases ahead of a frontal system.
A cold front brings a chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday
with cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Recent ACARs soundings are showing the expected low level jet
and inversion developing this evening, a bit stronger than model
guidance suggested; roughly a 15 degree inversion currently
with surface temps in the mid 50`s. The 20 knot low level jet
should prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions, even under
clear skies with low temperatures in the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday Night: Weather conditions on Thursday
will be similar to today with plenty of sunshine and above
normal temperatures. Highs will be 3-6 degrees warmer than
Wednesday with readings in the upper seventies to lower
eighties. A backdoor cold front pushes into the forecast area
from the north and east Thursday night but with PWAT values
under an inch, the passage should be dry. The combination of
clear skies and cold air advection will result in overnight lows
in the mid to upper forties.

Friday and Friday Night: It`ll be noticeably cooler on Friday
following the passage of the cold front. Model guidance
suggests that enough moisture will be present in the lower
atmosphere to produce shallow low-level cloudiness which would
further limit highs for the day. It will be a dry regardless of
cloud development. Highs will be closer to typical values for
early March ranging from the lower sixties to the lower
seventies. Clouds are expected to linger into the overnight
hours limiting how much temperatures fall. Overnight lows are
forecast to be a couple degrees warmer than Thursday night with
values ranging from the mid-forties to around fifty degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper-level ridging moves into the region at the start of the
long term paving the way to the warmest temperatures of the year
thus far. Skies clear out from south to north on Saturday as
winds shift to the southeast allowing temperatures to return to
above normal values. The warming trend continues Sunday and
Monday with near record highs possible. Rainfall is not expected
until Monday evening when moisture increases ahead of an
approaching weather system. Ridging aloft is replaced by broad
troughing on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves through
the Southeastern US. The best chance of precipitation will be
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Temperatures should be
cooler on Tuesday given the clouds and rain but uncertainty in
the forecast increases near the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions for the TAF period.

Clear skies through the period. Winds becoming light and
variable overnight, then westerly around 5 knots by 15z. As
mixing increases, winds will increase to around 10 knots, with
gusts up to 16 knots by 18z and through the afternoon on
Thursday. Airmass remains much to dry, and there should be
enough mixing tonight to keep fog from forming.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog
possible at fog prone sites late week into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...