Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/02/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

 846 PM EST Tue Mar 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along with drier air will build into the region
through mid-week. Temperatures will be above normal from
Wednesday through the weekend with the exception of Friday. The
warmest days should be Sunday and Monday as deep southerly flow
develops. Dry weather is likely through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Temperatures dropping quickly away from urban areas this
evening after sunset with clear skies and light winds. Near
surface inversions are already well developed based on aircraft
soundings out of CLT. Therefore, I have knocked temps down a
degree or two to come better in line with current low temp
thinking.

No other changes needed this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Northwesterly 500mb flow will persist on Wednesday as another
upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region into New
England. Surface high pressure will remain in place as well
providing another fair weather day with mostly sunny skies and
warming temperatures and a dry atmosphere with PWAT values less
than a half inch. High temps on Wednesday will push through the
mid and upper 70s. Temperatures will warm further on Thursday
as flow becomes a bit more zonal from the west aloft and surface
southwesterly flow develops with rising thicknesses. High
temperatures should reach the lower 80s in the central and
eastern Midlands. Overnight lows each night will be in the mid
to upper 40s with reasonable radiational cooling.

Upper level ridging will move into the Great Lakes and OH/TN
Valley regions on Friday with confluent flow over New England
which will result in high pressure building over the northeast
and Mid-Atlantic pushing a backdoor front through the forecast
area. No precipitation is expected with the boundary with PWAT
values only around 0.7 inches and no instability. The boundary
should usher in some cooler air and there likely will be some
cloud cover associated with the front so temperatures should
cool off a bit on Friday, especially across the northern
Midlands resulting in a strong temperature gradient over the
area. Highs expected to range from the mid 60s north to upper
70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Benign but warm weather expected through the long term period
as ensembles indicate anomalously strong 500mb heights building
over the region through the weekend. Surface high pressure will
be centered offshore with a southerly flow over the forecast
area. NAEFS ESAT tables also showing heights and temps in the
90+ percentiles through Monday. This will result in well above
normal temperatures nearly 15 to 20 degrees above normal with
possible record highs Sun/Mon, the warmest expected days.

The pattern will begin to shift by Tuesday as the upper ridge
axis shifts to the east and an upper trough over the middle of
the country flattens and the 500mb flow becomes more zonal.
Persistent low level southwesterly flow and increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will support PWATs rising over an inch
by Monday night into Tuesday. Will include low chance pops with
possible shortwave energy and ample atmospheric moisture in
place.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions for the TAF period.

High confidence VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds
through Wednesday afternoon. Some smoke may linger around aloft
this evening near OGB, DNL, and AGS but no operational impacts
are expected. Winds develop out of the west by Wednesday
afternoon, sustained 8-10 knots with gusts up to 16-18 kt.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected this week, except late night/early morning fog
possible mid to late week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...