Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/16/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
549 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Warm and very breezy conditions continue across North and Central
Texas late this afternoon with occasional gusts as high as 40
mph. Although low level moisture is gradually increasing this
afternoon, the relative humidity has fallen below 40 percent
across most zones with high temperatures in the 70s. The
combination of warm, dry and very breezy weather has resulted in
numerous grass fires since there is plenty of dormant grass
available to burn. Although humidity will increase steadily this
evening, the wind will remain strong and gusty which could hinder
some fire fighting efforts.
Other than some adjustments to the wind speeds and hourly humidity,
the current forecast is in good shape and no major changes are
needed at this time. (see discussion below)
79
Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/
Mostly sunny, warm, and windy conditions continue this afternoon
in advance of an approaching southern stream mid level
disturbance. Temperatures well into the 60s should warm to around
70 degrees at most locations by late afternoon. Gusty south wind
20 to 25 mph with a few gusts exceeding 35 mph has been noted this
afternoon as mixing of 40 knot, southerly boundary layer flow and
a tight pressure gradient is driving the winds. The strong low
level southerly flow and warm advection continue tonight as the
Southwest U.S. mid level system continues approaching from the
west. This will help pull up more moisture-rich air from the Gulf
of Mexico tonight and Wednesday as dew point temperatures in the
40s rise into the 50s with a few values in the lower 60s arriving
Wednesday afternoon. In addition, continuing strong low level flow
between 40 to 50 knots within the PBL tonight will help widespread
stratus form and spread north quickly after midnight late tonight.
The strong southerly winds and stratus will result in lows
Wednesday morning only cooling into the the lower to mid 50s.
The strato-Cu canopy will likely linger across all but the far
western Big Country counties much of the day, as a couple of
fairly nebulous mid level impulses race northeast over the
forecast area. Highs out there will reach the mid 70s, while all
other locales will only get into the upper 60s to lower 70s thanks
to the persistent cloud cover. A strong elevated mixed layer (or
capping inversion) aloft appears to now remain over the area with
the surface dryline remaining west of the CWA through 00z
Thursday. This is likely due to a slightly slower and deeper
system to our west. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
primarily east of US-281 by late morning and through the afternoon
hours as the elevated mixed layer (EML) slowly lifts through the
day. I added a mention for a few thunderstorms across the
northeast counties Wednesday afternoon. This area will be where
the strongest low level warm advection and steep mid level lapse
rates between 7-8 deg C/km juxtapose during peak heating. Though I
couldn`t rule out a strong storm with gusty winds and small hail,
the majority of this activity will be of the general variety with
the better prospects for strong to severe storms occurring beyond
the scope of this discussion and discussed in more detail below
in the long term discussion.
05/Marty
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 234 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022/
/Wednesday Evening through Tuesday/
As Wednesday evening approaches, the dryline and cold front will
still be located outside of our area. Some showers will likely
still be moving north through the eastern half of the region, and
there may be an overall break in the coverage of showers.
Severe weather threat highlights:
The main upper level disturbance will lift northeast across the
Texas Panhandle overnight Wednesday, and into western Oklahoma
Thursday morning. While showers and storms are expected to develop
along the dryline, the farther east the dryline moves, away from
the upper level support, the more challenging it will be to
maintain storm strength. Forecast soundings agree that the CAP
will hold until the dryline arrives at any one location,
providing the needed lift to weaken the lid enough for shower and
storm development.
Around midnight, the dryline is expected to reach our western
counties with showers and thunderstorms already developed or
developing along the boundary. A nearly solid or broken line of
storms is expected to progress east across locations along and
north of Interstate 20. South of Interstate 20, some development
of showers and storms is expected, but how far south the line
extends is still in question.
Shear values are very good across the region, but instability is not
overly favorable for severe storm development. Instability is the
best north of I-20 and west of I-35, and this will be the area most
favored to experience strong/severe storms. Elsewhere, forecast
soundings indicate fairly minimal tall-and-skinny CAPE profiles
after the CAP is removed. Severe storm coverage in these areas
(south of I-20, and north of I-20 but east of I-35) may be
hampered by these CAPE profiles and also distance from the best
larger scale lift. Therefore, I would not be surprised that any
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued tomorrow night are all in our
northwest quadrant, with a gradual weakening of the storms as it
moves east, into the I-35 corridor and east of there. South of
I-20, we cannot rule out an isolated severe storm but the
parameters are weaker the farther south in our CWA you go.
Damaging wind will be the main threat with any severe storms, but
some hail is possible, and we will be monitoring for quick tornado
spin-ups. Hodographs are curved in the lower levels, but fold back
on themselves just above 700 mb which may interrupt any attempts at
supercellular structures. This fact, along with the strong CAP, will
likely prevent storms from developing ahead of the line, during the
evening hours and overnight.
The dryline, and any showers or storms along its leading edge,
will exit to our east early Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts
with this system will be less than 3/4 inch.
Late Week Cool Down:
A cold front will blast across the region on Thursday with breezy
winds and falling temperatures in the wake of the front. With the
arrival during the day, this makes the high temperature forecast
tricky for Thursday. Locations across the northern areas of the CWA
will reach high temperatures early in the day, but our southern
counties will see a brief warm up before the front arrives. Across
our northern areas, I trended downwards for high temperatures over
guidance.
I increased the winds to the higher side of guidance for Thursday
behind the front. Considering the rainfall amounts overnight will
be less than an inch, and despite the cooler temperatures and
slightly higher RH, the wind speeds will make initial fire attack
challenging if any grassfires are able to start.
Thursday night will be a cold night with overnight lows dropping
into the 20s across most of the region. Parts of Central Texas may
only dip into the lower 30s. The cold air will be short-lived as we
start to rebound into warmer temperatures over the weekend. By
Sunday, high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s will have
returned to most of the region. Strong return flow of moisture will
also commence on Sunday, but elevated fire weather conditions will
likely still occur west of I-35 on Sunday due to warm temperatures,
low humidities, and breezy winds. Elevated fire weather conditions
are also likely across the western half on Monday.
More Rain Next Week?
With moisture returning across the region early next week, as an
upper level disturbance moves across the region, rain chances will
return on Monday and may continue into Tuesday as an upper level
trough takes position over the western CONUS. Another cold front
is suggested by the longer range models around the middle of next
week.
JLDunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR will continue at all TAF sites this evening with scattered
high clouds. A 45+ knot low level jet will send stratus northward
from the Texas Hill Country late this evening, reaching Waco
between 06 and 07Z and the Metroplex TAF sites a couple of hours
later. Overall, ceilings should remain above 1000 ft but there
could be a short window of time for high end IFR ceilings around
sunrise at all sites. MVFR ceilings will remain across the entire
region Wednesday afternoon ahead of a cold front.
Although a few warm air advection showers or light sprinkles will
be possible overnight/Wednesday, no impacts to aircraft operations
are anticipated.
A gusty south wind will prevail through Wednesday afternoon.
Sustained speeds will remain between 16 and 22 knots with some
gusts around 30 knots.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 72 51 57 28 / 0 40 90 10 0
Waco 57 72 57 62 29 / 5 30 60 5 0
Paris 54 68 56 61 25 / 10 70 90 30 0
Denton 55 72 46 55 21 / 0 30 90 10 0
McKinney 56 70 51 58 25 / 5 50 90 10 0
Dallas 58 70 53 59 28 / 5 40 90 10 0
Terrell 56 71 56 62 26 / 5 50 90 20 0
Corsicana 57 72 59 63 29 / 10 40 80 20 0
Temple 57 72 58 63 28 / 10 20 50 5 0
Mineral Wells 54 74 42 52 23 / 0 10 90 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$