Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/30/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
554 PM CST Sat Jan 29 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CST Sat Jan 29 2022
Summary: Seasonable to above normal temperatures are expected
through Tuesday with some intermittent snow chances. Another cold
snap is expected Tuesday night through Friday with dangerously
cold temperatures and wind chills likely.
A clipper system with an attendant weak cold front are passing
through the region this afternoon from northwest to southeast.
Most of the snowfall today has occurred in the Minnesota
Arrowhead, with area webcams showing snow falling for most of the
day. Meanwhile, areas generally south of US Highway 2 are
experiencing mostly sunny skies this afternoon in the dry portion
of the system.
A broad area of low stratus on the back side of the low are
migrating to the southeast this afternoon and will overspread much
of the region this evening as winds shift to northwesterly behind
the front. These clouds are most likely driven by the combination
of the cold air advection and low-level mixing of what little
moisture is present as well as a bit of lift associated with upper
level cyclonic vorticity advection. A few snow flurries or light
snow showers will be possible underneath these clouds. Light lake-
effect snow will be possible along the South Shore as well tonight
and early Sunday morning, though accumulations are not likely to
be more than an around an inch.
A surface high will pass by to the south on Sunday with warm air
advection returning and winds switching to southwesterly. Some
weak upper level waves may result in some afternoon flurries and
mostly cloudy skies.
A broad upper ridge over the western states will move east as
southerly flow dominates on Monday. The warmer air will be
accompanied by higher moisture, so cloudy skies will be common
across the region. A potent upper level trough will bring an area
of low pressure across southern Canada, bringing snow chances
Monday night into Tuesday for parts of the region. The greatest
chances for some light snow accumulation will be near the
International Border, where a few inches of snow will be possible.
As this system passes to the east on Tuesday, a strong cold front
will follow, bringing gusty winds and the return of arctic air to
the region for the rest of the week. Overnight lows Tuesday
through Thursday nights in the teens to twenties below zero with
some locally colder temperatures will be possible, along with wind
chills in the twenties to forties below zero. Some relatively
milder temperatures and more active weather is possible from
Friday into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CST Sat Jan 29 2022
MVFR ceilings are expected tonight and clouds should clear out
later overnight as a weak area of low pressure moves southeastward
across northwest Wisconsin. A few flurries are possible at INL
and DLH, but visibility should remain VFR at those locations. With
the arrival of the stratus and winds veering northwest, radar
returns have developed near HIB. As of 29.2345Z, the light snow
band was west of the runway complex, but within the 5 SM ring to
the southwest. It`s likely this band of snow will wobble over the
runway complex this evening and I`ve added a TEMPO group for 3SM
visibility in light snow. Depending on the location of the snow
band, aircraft may encounter locally lower ceilings and reduced
visibility compared to the ASOS observation on arrival or
departure if flying through the snow band. GOES-East satellite
imagery appears to show clear skies upstream across portions of
southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario as of early this evening.
The back edge of the stratus has been moving to the southeast and
stratus should clear the terminals starting around 30.03Z at INL
and at HYR around 30.12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CST Sat Jan 29 2022
Winds will shift to north to northwesterly tonight behind a
front, bringing some gusty winds especially to the North Shore and
Apostle Islands with some gusts from 15 to 20 knots likely. A few
locally stronger gusts cannot be ruled out, but wind gusts
stronger than 20 knots are looking less likely as the latest
short-term model guidance suggests. Wave heights up to 5 feet are
likely to develop late this evening through Sunday morning for the
Apostle Islands, especially for the north-facing islands. These
waves will be hazardous for small craft, and a Small Craft
Advisory has been issued. Wind speeds will decrease Sunday morning
and become southerly Sunday night. Winds may become a bit
blustery going into Monday with gusts from around 15 to 20 knots
possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 3 18 8 26 / 10 10 10 0
INL -5 15 6 26 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 2 18 8 28 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 6 21 8 28 / 10 10 10 0
ASX 11 21 9 30 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday
for LSZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...JDS