Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/26/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

 543 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist until about 09z. After which
moistening of the low and mid-levels will lead to the development
of MVFR ceilings first at KLBB and KPVW and then a few hours later
at KCDS. As this moistening occurs the potential for freezing
drizzle and/or light snow will also develop around daybreak on
Wednesday and this wintry precipitation is expected to persist
through the day at all terminals. Aircraft icing will also be
possible on approach/departure during much of the day on
Wednesday. Wintry precipitation will come to an end early
Wednesday evening from west to east although MVFR skies are
expected to persist through the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022/

SHORT TERM...
While cold air at the surface continues to pour into our region to
tonight, an upper level low will be approaching from the west.  This
upper low was moving through Utah and Arizona this afternoon and
should be approaching the Panhandle and South Plains during the day
Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to fall into the teens or 20s
tonight and then with increased cloud cover remain in the 20s
throughout the day Wednesday.  As such any precipitation that falls
should be freezing on impact or falling as snow.  As is often the
case with winter systems, a small layer of warm air above the
surface makes the determination of whether or not we get freezing
drizzle or snow far from certain.

The onset of precipitation will most likely be after 3 AM in the
southwest Panhandle spreading east and southeast toward the central
South Plains including Lubbock and Plainview around or a little
after 6 AM Wednesday. The highest chances of precipitation will be
from late morning through mid afternoon in central areas with the
system moving quickly east and exiting the Rolling Plains and
southeast Panhandle by early evening.

Models show that the best lift will be over the Panhandle and
northern South Plains.  As such chances for accumulating snowfall
should be in those areas too.  We continue to expect snowfall
accumulations to range from a trace up to 2 inches with spot amounts
in the southern Panhandle near 3 inches.  Ice accumulations from
freezing drizzle should be very light, but with the cold
temperatures they could cause problems on sidewalks and roadways.
Thanks to TXDOT many of our highways will have been treated and have
less icing.  We have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 AM
to 6 PM. Lipe

LONG TERM...
Early Thursday expected to be dry and cool with a weak surface low
pressure trough across the area and westerly flow aloft. This
surface trough will provide meager downslope westerly breezes
early in the day allowing temperatures to warm at least into the
40s. But another cold front will be advancing southward into the
area by midday out of the Texas Panhandle as another upper trough
dives south-southeast across the area Thursday night. More
impressive warming Thursday will be stunted as a result. This
upper trough expected to remain open as it crosses overhead so
precipitation chances developing across much of central and east
Texas Friday should remain south and east of our area. Friday
will start out chilly as well and highs again likely to remain
below normal, still in the 40s.

Weekend warming trend still on track, however, as a surface low
pressure trough develops Friday night and Saturday, while a weak
upper level high pressure ridge approaches from the west and
passes overhead early Sunday. Saturday will be on the breezy side
with temperatures back into the 60s while Sunday may see a bit
more clouds and less wind, but still fairly mild. A relatively
compact upper low appears will cross the area early Monday likely
with a bit of increase in mid and upper moisture but will remain
dry in the lower atmosphere and temperatures also should stay mild
through early next week. Developing upper level troughing
throughout the west is impressive but generally lacking in
significant moisture, at least with the very early indications.
Still, this may lead to low shower chances by the middle of next
week. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
TXZ021>037-039>042.

&&

$$

58/04/05