Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/25/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 940 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

The 00Z guidance suite has begun to converge on a solution of narrow
north-south oriented band of higher snow accumulations for areas
near and south of Interstate 80 through tomorrow evening. Forecast
soundings suggest a narrow window of enhanced lift co-located within
a deepening DGZ near sunrise tomorrow and continuing into the early
afternoon. This will lead to efficient snow processes and increased
totals where lift is maximized. SLRs will increase through the
morning hours, from ~11-12:1 to ~13-15:1 by tomorrow evening. The
enhanced snow accumulations will occur in a limited window, with
the upper trough axis swinging through by late afternoon and the
deeper lift abating as this occurs. However, some guidance
suggests a longer period of light snow into the evening hours.
This would likely add to snow totals, albeit less than the
morning/early afternoon round. Have extended POPs into the early
evening to account for this threat. Exactly where the band sets up
remains somewhat low confidence, though locally higher totals
(>3") would be possible. With this in mind, have bumped QPF and
snow totals and have hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for
counties along and south of I-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

Active weather will start off the short term as a Colorado low
develops to the west tonight. This system will mainly be confined to
our west, but much of southwest and western Nebraska is expected to
be be clipped with some light precipitation tonight and into
Tuesday. Model guidance on location and track remains steady for
this system. Snow is expected to begin by early evening across the
Panhandle and slowly spread southeast throughout the remainder of
the night.

There is some concern though that some banded snowfall may develop
early in the event across southwest Nebraska however exactly where
those bands could set up is uncertain. While banded snow is hard to
forecast, have still increased snow totals a few tenths generally
south of I-80 to accommodate possible slightly higher amounts.

On the flip side, there is still a concern that the developing high
pressure system to the east may push the snow further west,
resulting in snow totals that are much less than what is currently
forecasted. While most models keep the high to the east long enough
for at least some snow, there is always that marginal possibility.
Confidence in this happening though is low.

In addition to snow, cold wind chills may be possible across extreme
north central Nebraska tonight. Here, wind chills down to -10
degrees could be possible. Elsewhere, clouds and snow will keep
wind chills slightly warmer in the positive single digits.

Precipitation will generally be pushed to the south by Tuesday
afternoon, however, a few lingering snow showers may persist into
the afternoon especially across Perkins, Chase, and Hayes counties.
Any additional accumulations should be minimal.

High pressure will then return for Tuesday night with dry conditions
prevailing. Cold air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the -12
to -4 degree range will also be possible behind the departing low on
Tuesday night. As a result of this combined with clear skies, wind
chill values may drop into the -5 to 5 degree range across southwest
Nebraska and into the central Sandhills. Across extreme north
central Nebraska, wind chills as low as -10 degrees may be seen.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

For the extended, quiet and dry conditions will continue across
north central and western Nebraska. High pressure remain over the
region for the remainder of the week and into next weekend. A few
model runs are still suggesting some light precipitation associated
with a strong positively tilted trough on Thursday across the
Panhandle. Have held off on putting any snow into the prevailing
forecast at this time as confidence continues to remain very low. If
snow does develop off the front ranges, QPF is expected to be light
and therefore, not much snow will fall. Current thinking is that
this trough will only bring some increasing clouds across the
eastern Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. Will continue to keep an
eye on this and adjust the forecast as confidence increases through
mid-week.

Warm air advection into the region will allow surface temperatures
to climb back into the 40s for Wednesday and eventually into the low
to mid 50s by Saturday and Sunday. Thursday will be the one cool day
as the trough digs south and cooler air filtering out of Canada push
into the region. Highs this day will return to the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

Expect conditions will trend down at KVTN and especially KLBF
through tonight.

Cigs at KVTN will generally remain MVFR though may briefly pop up
to VFR this evening, and vsbys will become MVFR with some light
snow developing toward daybreak. However conditions will improve
at KVTN during the latter portion of the valid period with a
return to VFR expected by Tuesday afternoon.

Cigs at KLBF will sink to MVFR toward Midnight then continue
downward to IFR by daybreak, with vsbys following suit as light
snow develops. Expect conditions to start trending up later
Tuesday morning with snow ending by the afternoon, though cigs
will remain MVFR through the end of the valid period.

Winds may be a bit gusty for an hour or two after issuance but
generally expect northeasterly winds to remain on the light side
with little impact to aircraft operations.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for
NEZ056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Brown
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...MBS