Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 12/19/21

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

 1017 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues into Sunday as a cooling trend
begins. Quick moving high pressure provides a break between
weather systems on Monday. The next weather maker forms in the
Gulf of Mexico on Monday bringing cold and wet weather Tuesday
into Wednesday before heading out to sea. Much better weather is
expected as the Christmas holiday approaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Large batch of rainfall with a few isolated thunderstorms
continues across much of the central and western portions of
the cwa. This activity is expected to continue for a good
portion of the overnight hours in this same general area, then
late tonight the activity should push further east into the
remainder of the cwa. Current pop trends remain on track, so
only minor adjustments required at this time.

Overnight lows will remain fairly warm given the cloud cover,
in the low 60`s and upper 50`s. These temperatures will likely
end up being fairly close to the highs achieved Sunday due to
the timing of the frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday Night: The front should be moving through the
forecast area in the morning but it looks like it will take
much of the day for the rain to end and skies to clear. Warm,
moist southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary will support
showers across the forecast area at daybreak with the chance of
rain decreasing from west to east. Temperatures will be tricky
with northern and western counties likely hitting their maximum
temperatures in the morning before falling off in the afternoon
as cold air starts to work its way into our CWA. Current
thinking is that highs will range from the lower sixties in the
northwest to near seventy degrees in the southeast. Skies become
clear to partly cloudy Sunday night as colder and drier air
moves in from the north and high pressure approaches from the
northwest. Overnight lows will be dependent on how quickly skies
clear out with most locations ending the night in the 30-40
degree range.

Monday and Monday Night: Surface high pressure to our north will
provide a break between weather systems on Monday. Skies start
the day partly to mostly sunny with increasing cloudiness
towards evening. Temperatures will be significantly colder
compared to the weekend with highs in the upper forties to lower
fifties. A cutoff upper-level low centered over Texas Monday
morning is expected to trigger the development of a surface low
in the western Gulf of Mexico. This area of low pressure moves
through the Gulf Monday night with clouds and moisture
increasing well ahead of it courtesy of isentropic lift. Rain
chances increase from south to north as moisture surges back
into the Midlands and CSRA. Due to the expected cloud cover,
temperatures will have difficulty falling quickly and they
should remain above freezing through the night therefore any
precipitation that moves in should remain all rain. Low
temperatures are expected to range from the mid-thirties in the
north to around forty degrees south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term begins unsettled as low pressure in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico tracks northeast off the Carolina coast. Tuesday
continues to look like a raw day with cold temperatures and
periods of rain, especially south and east of Augusta and
Columbia. Conditions should improve on Wednesday as the coastal
low pulls away from the region. Despite a setup favorable for
wintry precipitation, this event looks to remain all rain since
temperatures are expected to stay above freezing. Tuesday will
likely be the coldest day of the week with highs in the upper
forties to near fifty degrees remaining below normal on
Wednesday. Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure build
in from the west as the Christmas holiday approaches with dry
weather and gradually warming temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prefrontal batch of showers, and isolated thunderstorms,
currently stretches from central SC SW across Central and SW
GA, moving E. Expect precipitation to affect the TAF sites
through much of the overnight into Sunday. Lower flight
restrictions currently just to our N and NW and these lower CIGs
are expected to shift/develop eastward into our TAF sites
later tonight. So, expect a deterioration of CIGs tonight,
along with VSBYS restricted by rain. Most recent ACARS
soundings at CAE indicate lighter winds above the surface than
originally thought. Removed LLWS mention. The main front will
move through Sunday afternoon. Expect a wind shift to N with
continued CIG restrictions and chance of light showers, though
will indicate improvement to MVFR in the afternoon. Drier air
moving in behind the front should allow for a return to VFR late
Sunday night.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR Monday and early Monday night.
Expect MVFR, to occasionally IFR at times, late Monday night through
early Wednesday, as an area of low pressure develops over the Gulf
of Mexico and tracks NE offshore the Carolinas, spreading moisture
into our region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$