Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 12/15/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
533 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021
Shallow low-level mstr will return w this evening and the low-
level jet will develop around 06Z/Wed. As such winds will remain
up overnight at MAF/FST near 15kts at times. Also a brief
appearance of MVFR/IFR CIGS are probable at MAF/HOB, respectively.
Before 18Z winds will increase and turn sw-w with gusts of
30-40kts. Also a well development mtn wave will form in the
morning across the GDP Mtns and light low flying aircraft may
experience severe turbulence.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021
A potent upper lvl trough will dig across the southern Rocky Mtns
tonight and eject into the Central Plains tomorrow afternoon. As it
does so, the assocd 500-700 hpa jet will increase, especially over
far NW portions of our CWA. Tonight we will see a stout low-lvl jet
develop which will pull moisture into the Permian Basin and
potentially bring low clouds/patchy fog into the region. Lows will
be well above normal due to the uptick in moisture. Early tomorrow
morning, the approaching 500 hpa trof will induce a sfc low in the
lee of the Rockies and cause winds to increase out of the WSW. This
will help elevate high temperatures 15-20F above normal! Near record
highs will be possible across our region as well. Current record
high for MAF is 82F and we are forecasting 81F. High winds are a
sure bet for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and we will go
ahead and upgrade to a HWW there. Advisory level winds are also
expected to overspread the adjacent plains of Culberson County and
SE New Mexico where a Wind Advisory is now in effect beginning at 10
AM MST tomorrow. The strong winds combined with dry conditions
during peak heating will increase fire weather concerns in the
aforementioned areas (see fire wx discussion below). Winds should
subside and begin to shift out of the NW after sunset with lows
settling into the 30s and 40s by Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Dec 14 2021
On Thursday a weak upper trough will be moving across the Nrn Plains
as a stronger trough is taking shape back over the NW. On Friday
the southern portion of this trough will back build down across Srn
CA and AZ then dip into Nrn Mexico Saturday before coming across the
area Sunday. High pressure builds in behind that.
Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler behind the Pacific front but
still above normal in the mid 60s to lower 70s... with Friday a
couple degrees warmer. A Cold front late Friday/early Saturday will
result in much colder temperatures for the weekend with highs in the
50s. Warmer temps return early next week. Lows Sunday morning may
fall below freezing for the northern half of the area and across the
higher elevations.
Given the dry trend the past few months expect little measurable
precipitation... however in the extended models are carrying some
light precipitation Saturday mainly south which happens to coincide
with some temperatures falling to or below 32 degrees Saturday
night. Therefore have added a rain/snow mix to those locations but
currently expect very little of either.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 57 80 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 46 73 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 53 77 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 54 85 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 50 64 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 47 75 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 43 76 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 55 80 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 54 80 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 48 80 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for Eastern
Culberson County.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM CST /6 AM MST/ to 10 PM CST /9 PM
MST/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for Central Lea
County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM MST Wednesday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$