Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 11/15/21

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

 811 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak but dry cold front crosses our area this evening with cooler
temperatures settling in for the near term. The potential remains
for a frost Monday night into Tuesday with more favorable conditions
at the surface. Otherwise, upper level ridging will begin building
over the region Tuesday with moderating temperatures and continued
dry conditions through Thursday. The next cold front is expected to
cross the region Thursday night into Friday, but rain chances look
slim at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Clear across the state once again this evening, though some mid and
upper level clouds are beginning to push in to the Piedmont from the
west. These clouds are associated with a frontal boundary draped
from the Great Lakes region through the Ohio Valley, and one which
is pretty devoid of moisture this far south. This front should
traverse our area over the next few hours, with little impact on our
sensible weather outside of a slight wind shift from the southwest
to the west/northwest and perhaps a few passing high level clouds.
Though surface winds are not expected to be very strong or gusty,
speeds should be sufficient to keep our low temperatures from
completely bottoming out tonight. Nevertheless, cold advection will
still support overnight lows dropping down into the upper 30s by
the pre-dawn hours on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Monday Night: The upper-level trough will lift out of
the region on Monday. At the surface, high pressure to our west
will move into our forecast area Monday night. While there will
be ample sunshine during the daytime hours, cold air advection
will result in another day of near to below average temperatures
with values generally in the upper fifties to lower sixties.
Monday night will be another chilly one with lows in the mid-thirties
along with areas of patchy frost. Some counties may need a Frost
Advisory if trends continue.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Upper-level ridging builds into the
region as surface high pressure moves to our east. Another sunny
day is in the forecast for the CWA. Winds shift to the
southwest on Tuesday allowing for warmer daytime temperatures.
Highs should top out in the upper sixties to near seventy with
overnight lows in the lower to mid forties.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While there will be changes to the synoptic pattern during the
long term, it appears the region remains dry. Wednesday is sunny
and warm as the ridge begins to move to our east. An upper-level
trough and associated cold front approach on Thursday. While
clouds will be on the increase, it will be another warm day.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be above
average. The best support for the front should once again be to
our north meaning that the frontal passage on Friday morning
will be dry. High pressure builds in behind the front with cooler
temperatures expected Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. Dry air mass in place to be reinforced by a dry cold front
coming through late tonight/early Monday. Dry air plus wind
expected to preclude fog. Some model indications of possible
LLWS. Will include, and monitor any later ACARS soundings/CAE
VWP for confirmation.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions are unlikely
through Thursday as dry air and high pressure dominate. A cold
front will cross the region Thursday night into Friday but
moisture is limited and no restrictions or precipitation is
expected with the passage.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$