Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 10/08/21
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
625 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/
Late afternoon surface analysis reveals a 1010 mb low over western
KS with a surface trough extending from this low south across the
Southern Plains. In the mid levels, GOES-E water vapor channel
imagery shows a deep trough beginning to dig into the western
CONUS. As this mid-level trough digs into the western CONUS,
differential cyclonic vorticity advection will lead to surface
cyclogenesis across the Southern Plains, deepening the surface
low. The large-scale surface pressure falls along the lee of the
Rockies will enhance low-level southerly flow. Short-range model
guidance shows southerly sustained winds of 15-20 MPH across parts
of North TX by Friday afternoon with gusts to around 25 MPH. This
is short of wind advisory criteria, but it will be a breezy day
nevertheless. Caution should be exercised on north-to-south
oriented lakes as well as east-west highways across the region.
Otherwise, mostly sunny and dry weather will continue, but
humidity will tick up slightly as the robust southerly flow allows
moisture return to begin across the region.
Godwin
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 323 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021/
/Moving Into The Weekend & Early Next Week/
The good news first. Your weekend should be mainly rain-free with
low humidity, as a persistent upper ridge over the area through
Saturday continues to keep a lid on rain chances. Then we will
transition to a fast southwest flow component aloft by Sunday in
between the dampening upper ridge to our southeast and an
impressive longwave trough organizing across the Rockies and High
Plains. Now the bad news for the weekend (for some at least),
temperatures will remain toasty and well above normal in the
lower-mid 90s for most. With some stressed small vegetation across
the area, this could result in elevated grass fire conditions on
Saturday just about areawide, then across areas west of US-281
Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, the humidity will also increase,
making the heat feel even more oppressive, especially for those
across Central TX where dew points will be the most moist. Heat
index values will remain well below 100 degrees, so at least
those days are now past. Some food for thought about how well
above normal we are for early-mid October. Normals are in the
lower-mid 80s. Our current forecast highs both days could push
records at both DFW and Waco. DFW`s records are:(Sat - 96/2017 &
Sun - 95/1975), while Waco`s are: (Sat - 94/1963,2017 & Sun -
96/1975).
The weather pattern continues to become more unsettled beginning
Sunday night into Monday with a vigorous lead mid level impulse
lifting east across the TX/OK Panhandles Sunday afternoon and
evening, before progressively moving east across the Ozarks of
southern MO/AR on Monday. This will draw a surface dryline into
our far western counties Sunday evening, before a fairly weak and
benign cold front moves through Monday, before washing out
somewhere across Central/E TX Monday Night into Tuesday morning.
As most already know, hot temperatures, increasing moisture and
instability, along with lift will provide better convective rain
chances across North Texas, with lesser chances across Central
Texas. Still, the best kinematics and effective shear remains
primarily across OK/AR/Southern MO, so figuring out the
thermodynamic profiles will be interesting to see where the cap
best erodes, as well as storm modes (discrete supercellular versus
linear). Timing will be everything regarding initiation, as
initial isolated discrete supercells, especially N of I-20 will be
possible. After dark Sunday evening, we will get a strong 30-40kt
LLJ that will likely enhance the low level warm advection into
the weak frontal boundary for a broken line of storms, or possibly
tail end of a nocturnal MCS for northern and eastern counties
later Sunday night into Monday. We`ll continue to refine our
thoughts on timing and main hazards and impacts as we move closer
to the first potential severe weather event in quite awhile here.
Though convective chances will linger with the slowing/weakening
surface front across E/SE TX on Monday, the nicer weather won`t
last for long. Highs will in the 80s will prevail on Monday,
before the old front lifts back north as a warm front on Tuesday
in response to another system and left exit region of another
strong upper jet maximum driving ENE across the Southern Rockies
and across the Southern High Plains and OK/TX Panhandles once
again. This is quite a quick turn around after the event Sunday
night and Monday morning. Highs behind the warm front will likely
heat up back into the upper 80s to lower 90s with moisture return
and increasing instability. On top of that, the approaching large-
scale ascent and lift along and north of the warm front will
likely bring some interesting hodographs to coincide with that.
Like our first system, the entire synoptic evolution and timing
remains very uncertain, as does how the thermodynamic environment
aligns with the better shear and lift. Still, later Tuesday and
Tuesday evening could be the day of seeing supercell storms with
the potential for all modes of severe weather, especially near and
north of the warm front. Another Pacific cold front drives
through our area with higher rain chances on Wednesday. Cooler
high temperatures in the 70s and 80s return! The unsettled
weather pattern does continue through the end of the week, but
ensembles do show some dampening of the mean flow across the
Southern CONUS. For now, it looks like after Tuesday/early
Wednesday, the threat for any more severe weather appears much
lower at this time with continued Fall-like temperatures and more
stable low-level airmass. Low chances for mainly showers with
isolated, non-severe storms will be the primary weather impacts
the late next week.
05/Marty
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR and south flow will prevail at all terminals through the TAF
period. South winds will increase to 12-15 KT after 18Z Fri with
gusts to around 25 KT likely during the afternoon. Wind directions
should be 170-190 which will preclude significant crosswinds at
TAF locations, but light aircraft should be aware of the gusty
wind potential. Winds will be slightly veered off the surface, but
should be weak enough (20-25 KT) to prevent any LLWS issues. Wind
gusts will subside after 00Z Sat.
Godwin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 95 69 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 65 93 63 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 64 91 66 92 66 / 5 0 0 0 0
Denton 67 95 65 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 67 94 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 69 95 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 64 93 64 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 65 92 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 64 93 62 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 63 94 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$