Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/24/21

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 647 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

A weak shortwave is in the process of moving into the western
Dakotas this afternoon. A training weak cold front is analyzed from
near Pine Ridge to Alliance to Sidney. Temperatures aloft have
cooled a couple of degrees today which has helped to weaken the
capping inversion. As a result a few elevated showers and
thunderstorms have been occurring  in area of mid-level warm air
advection on the southeast side of the shortwave across northwest
Nebraska. This area of mid-level WAA will sag southeast across the
area tonight, with a continued threat of a few showers and
thunderstorms. There may be a bit of an uptick across southern SD
and far northern NE early to mid evening as better ascent
overspreads the area as the shortwave moves across. For the most
part it appears the severe threat is very low, but some threat for
gusty winds will exist especially if a small cluster can grow
upscale across southern SD and far northern NE.

The weak cold front will continue southeast overnight and be located
across northern KS by Saturday afternoon. Weak CAA will filter
across the area, and highs should generally hold in the lower to mid
90s (still hot). Somewhat drier air will filter into northern NE
where humidity values will be comfortable as dew points lower into
the 50s. Across central and southwest NE it will remain rather
sticky as dew points pool in the mid to upper 60s just north of the
frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Sunday the front lifts northward as a warm front. Models have
struggled with any possible convection as the front lifts back to
the north. The latest runs of the NAM and NAMnest would suggest
little if any chance for organized precipitation and any would be
spotty at best. We will keep some low end chance pops going at this
point but may have to lower if the drier model trends continue.
Monday and beyond the upper ridging builds into the Western High
Plains and eventually the Central Plains. Very warm temperatures
aloft will accompany this with little or no chance for precipitation
and continued hot temperatures. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday
could be near or exceed 100F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Weak front is slowly moving across the region early this evening
with showers/thunderstorms forming along the boundary. While
coverage will be sparse, will include a VCSH/VCTS for KVTN where
forcing is best but keep KLBF dry and amend if radar trends become
more active. Cigs/vsbys are expected to generally remain VFR
through Saturday.

Winds will become northwest behind the front then gradually veer
around to the northeast late tonight behind the boundary. However
wind speeds are expected to remain on the lighter side with little
impact to aircraft operations.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...MBS