Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/02/21

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 729 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

Chances for isolated thunderstorms this evening is the primary
concern for the short term.

Currently, an area of showers continues across far southwestern
Nebraska. Thus far, vertical development has been a challenge for
updrafts, likely due to dry air entrainment. With surface high
pressure located over eastern South Dakota, instability wanes with
northeastward extent across the CWA. Additionally, shear remains
very weak, with meager flow aloft noted on local morning upper air
RAOBs. The strongest convection remains locked to the higher terrain
out west, and with the aforementioned weak steering flow, this will
continue.

For the rest of tonight, quiet weather can be expected with what
little instability remaining waning with sunset. Lows overnight will
be a little warmer than this morning, in the lower 60s, as the
airmass continues to gradually modify.

H85 temps climb a few degrees tomorrow to near 20-21C and as a
consequence, highs return to the mid/upper 80s to near 90. Also, H85
flow remains a little stronger tomorrow over the northwest sections
of the CWA, in closer proximity to the H85 low. As diurnal mixing
occurs, winds will be gusty, with a few gusts nearing 30mph over the
eastern Panhandle. Chances for convection look to remain well to the
west over the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon and evening. The
weak upper wave responsible for today`s shower activity will lift
north and eastward into tomorrow. This leads to weaker forcing
locally, and with benign steering flow expected to continue, should
keep the CWA largely dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

Saturday looks to possibly be a little more active as an upper
trough axis begins to swing into the area. This trough axis leads to
slight cooling aloft and steepen mid-level lapse rates to near
8C/km. Additionally, H5 flow strengthens as it transitions
northwesterly and deep layer shear increases to near 30kts. A weak
surface frontal boundary off to the northwest should provide a focus
for convective initiation with convection progged to move into the
northern Panhandle by late evening. With steeper lapse rates and at
least marginal deep layer shear, cannot totally rule out a stronger
storm or two over the northwestern CWA. The low level jet will
strengthen overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, and this could
lead to convection making it into portions of north central
Nebraska.

Temperatures continue to warm into the holiday weekend with
widespread 90s anticipated both Independence Day and Monday. Those
with outdoor plans for the holiday can expect afternoon heat
index values in the middle to upper 90s. The aforementioned weak
surface boundary will continue to drift slowly southeast through
the area into early next week, and provide a focus for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development each day. The severe
threat looks low at this time, with vertical shear remaining
marginal.

A large ridge is progged to build over the western CONUS into the
middle part of next week and will promote northwesterly flow aloft
across the Plains. This could keep things active with a few weak
disturbances progged to zip through the area. Confidence wanes for
midweek and beyond, with some deterministic/ensemble guidance
hinting at the return of well above average temps with the
strengthening of the western CONUS ridge. If this comes to fruition,
triple digit highs look to return late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 729 PM CDT Thu Jul 1 2021

A dry forecast this valid period as no precipitation is expected
near TAF sites. Cigs are VFR and are expected to remain so into
Friday afternoon as better moisture with lower cigs is expected
to remain well off to the southwest.

Winds will diminish early tonight, then increase with some low end
gusts tomorrow afternoon, but no impacts to aircraft operations
are expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...MBS