Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/01/21

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 645 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

The main forecast challenges to round out the workweek include more
thunderstorm chances and the impact on temperatures. Scattered slow-
moving pulse storms have been developing the past few days and will
likely continue. Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually increase
from temperate/seasonable to summertime hot.

Western Nebraska remains on the periphery of both the record setting
upper ridge over Western US and an upper trough settled over the
Great Lakes. At the surface, weak boundaries lie to the north and
south of the forecast area with generally weak flow all around. A
subtle wave embedded in the trough combined with an upslope
component at H85 and some instability has led to the scattered
thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Severe parameters are limited
at best with MUCAPE up to 500j/kg and deep layer shear to 20 kts.
PWATs are seasonably high and storm motion slow, but the limited
coverage should keep flooding threat isolated and minimal. Expect
most of the activity to dissipate after sunset with the loss of low-
level instability, but another wave is possible overnight as some
storms move off the higher terrain and into SW Neb. Went with a
general blend for min temps, which resulted in slight cooling from
previous forecast. This takes into account clearing skies and light
winds. The anomalous upper ridge nudges east on Thursday while a
surface trough remains anchored off the Front Range. Much of the
same is expected in terms of popcorn summertime storms, mainly west
of Hwy 83 where broad low level forcing is more existent (mainly via
upslope) and a ribbon of instability stretches across the panhandle.
Most activity should wane after sunset again, leading to a mostly
clear sky Thursday night. Guidance is similar with forecast max
temps, ranging from mid 80s southwest to upper 80s north central,
and min temps near 60F.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Around the holiday weekend, the upper air pattern transitions to a
broad high over the Four Corners, which places Nebraska in northwest
to quasi-zonal flow. The surface pattern changes little over the
next several days with a broad surface high and weak boundaries in
the vicinity. Temperatures gradually warm with a peak in the
mid/upper 90s Sunday, then retreating into the lower 90s for early
week. Isolated to scattered pulse thunderstorms are possible almost
each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Afternoon showers will continue to diminish this evening and do
not expect any precipitation near TAF sites so will maintain a
dry forecast. Cigs are VFR and are expected to remain so into
Thursday afternoon as plume of moisture with lower cigs will
remain well off to the southwest.

Winds will generally be light with little impact to aircraft
operations.

Note: Will maintain AMD NOT SKED at KVTN until ASOS unit is
repaired and cigs return to the observation.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...MBS