Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/20/21

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

 744 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the eastern
part of the country for the next several days. This will bring
a stretch of generally dry weather and summerlike warmth to the
region through the weekend. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms
may return early next week as a cold front sags in from the
north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Wednesday...

Quiet weather with near normal temperatures in the near term.

There is some scattered cu across NW North Carolina and into the
Grayson Highlands, but with little depth, otherwise not much in
the cloud department this evening. Radar remains quiet and winds
were light, generally 5 mph or less from the southeast.

Tonight appears quite similar to last night and expect another
round of valley fog west of the Blue Ridge and maybe some patchy
fog to the east. Once any fog burns off Wednesday morning,
warming high pressure surface and aloft will continue to cap the
region with another dry day expected as temperatures start to
rise.

Lows tonight generally in the 50s with some 40s west of the Blue
Ridge. Highs Wednesday will be above normal with middle 80s east
of the Ridge and mid 70s/near 80 to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 121 PM EDT Wednesday...

First taste of summer in 2021 is on tap this weekend.

A broad omega block pattern expected across the United States with
upper level troughs located over the West and well off the East
Coast along with an upper level ridge east of the Mississippi River.
High pressure along with a strong ridge will remain over the Mid
Atlantic region into Friday. The NAEFS Mean MSLP and ECMWF Mean MSLP
were around plus 3 Standard Anomaly for Friday. The upper level
ridge should slowly retrograde westward toward the Mississippi River
on Saturday. While the GFS tries to hint at a baroclinic zone
sagging southward from New England to bring a small threat of
showers to the northeast-east, the ECMWF and Canadian keep the
Appalachian Mountains dry. Due to the suppression and dry
airmass expected from this upper level ridge, Saturday was
leaned towards the drier forecast.

Make sure to remember your sunscreen when out in the sunshine given
the fact that we are only about a month away from the summer
solstice, which is when the sun angle is at the highest in the
Northern Hemisphere. It is time to find your summer gear.

Moderate confidence in the Short Term Period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 121 PM EDT Wednesday...

Hot weather continues for early next week, but chances of showers
and thunderstorms will slowly increase each afternoon.

By Sunday, the omega block pattern will begin to break down. The
upper level ridge will weaken and be shunted toward the Gulf Coast
as the upper level trough over the West Coast starts to track
eastward. The Mid Atlantic region will remain hot early next week
with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

The baroclinic frontal zone to the north will slowly drop southward
toward the Appalachian Mountains as the first half of this week
progresses. The combination of heat along with increasing moisture
and orographic lift should generate a chance of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms in the mountains starting about
Monday. (It could be as early as Sunday afternoon if 12z GFS
has the right idea.) The afternoon convection potential should
gradually rise Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front crosses the
northern Plains and approaches the Ohio River Valley. A pre-
frontal surface trough may enhance storm development Midweek.

Medium confidence in the Long Term period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure dominates surface and aloft so a high confidence
aviation forecast through the remainder of the week.

Expect VFR conditions all sites into tonight. Fog/stratus is
expected to develop again tonight with LIFR/VLIFR at KLWB, and a
tempo to MVFR at KBCB, KLYH, and KDAN toward daybreak. After
fog burns off Wednesday morning, VFR all sites once again
through Wednesday afternoon.

Winds will be light with little impact to aircraft operations
through the period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure and VFR conditions prevail for the remainder of
the week and into the weekend. Patchy fog may develop in
mountain valleys most mornings, but the overall trend is for
drying with little or no rain.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM