Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/06/21

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Phoenix AZ

 441 PM MST Wed May 5 2021

.UPDATE...00Z aviation discussion.

.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures will be near 100 degrees today through Friday.
Temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 90s this weekend
and into early next week along with a return of breezy conditions.
No precipitation is in the forecast through the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The lower troposphere has warmed a few degrees from this time 24
hours ago, as evident on aircraft soundings, and a negatively
tilted ridge is in place across the region. A few cirrus have been
passing over the area, but coverage is not enough to have any
sensible influence on temperatures this afternoon. The latest NBM
is still showing around 40-60% chance of reaching or exceeding
100 degrees in Phoenix this afternoon and a 70-80% Thursday. Sky
Harbor is still yet to reach the mark this year and if able to
today or tomorrow it will be only a few days later than normal.
Regardless if 100 is reached, temperatures will present a moderate
heat risk for Phoenix and other metropolitan areas.

Thursday, the ridge axis will shift to western NM with more of a
southerly to south-southwesterly synoptic flow prevailing over the
area. As a 700 mb high slides into West Texas a moisture axis will
develop in Mexico and extend north into NM and parts of southeast
AZ. Within this moisture axis, most models are developing
convection tomorrow afternoon. A few showers and/or an isolated
storm cannot be ruled out in southeast Gila county, but HREF
suggests most if not all convection will stay just outside the
local CWA.

Temperatures will cool as a trough progresses into the western
CONUS this weekend. WPC cluster analysis is still in favor of a
lower amplitude trough, with around 20-30% of the solutions
suggesting a deeper trough, mostly dominated by GEFS members. So
with the lower amplitude solution favored, temperatures are
unlikely to cool too drastically. NBM is showing afternoon
temperatures still reaching the mid-90s across the lower deserts
Saturday through the middle of next week. Precipitation remains
unlikely with this trough as virtually all ensemble members show
no measurable precipitation. The trough pattern will at least
result in slightly breezier conditions and possibly areas of windy
conditions if the lower probability deeper trough solution comes
to fruition. WPC clusters show very little agreement for the
middle of next week, with a roughly equal proportion of members
showing continued weak troughing or ridging rebuilding over the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2341Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation impacts expected through the period. Winds will favor
normal diurnal trends staying aob 9 kts. Can`t rule out a few
thermal gusts early this evening, mainly at KDVT. Westerly winds to
persist later-than-usual overnight, likely becoming easterly
around/shortly after midnight. Typical switch to westerly around 20-
21Z on Thursday (likely after a short period of light southerly
crosswinds), with these westerly winds likely persisting well into
Thursday night. FEW-SCT decks at times through evening then mostly
clear conditions will prevail.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation impacts expected through the TAF period. Skies will
be mostly clear with just occasional high clouds aoa 25 kft. At
KIPL, winds will favor the southeast through the TAF period with
light winds picking up a bit Thursday morning. At KBLH, winds will
favor the south-southwest, with a few gusts in the teens possible
early this evening. Stronger southerly winds to return Thursday
afternoon at KBLH, with sustained winds in the mid-teens with gusts
rising into the mid-20`s.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday:
Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week with
highs in the mid 90s. Min RHs will remain around 10% or lower most
afternoons while recoveries rise into the 20-30% range for most
places, except near Imperial and Yuma where maximum values of
30-50% will be common. Breezy conditions are likely each afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Benedict
AVIATION...Percha/D`Anthony/Feldkircher
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Hodges