Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/08/21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
936 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021
.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021
Updated to expand the winter weather advisory to include Scott
county to match WFO Goodland. Continued to leave out Hays and the
I-70 corridor, where the air is colder and notably drier, and the
boundary layer is much further from saturation at present. This
may change later tonight and bears watching. 00z NAM continues to
show a strong light QPF/drizzle signature overnight into early
Monday across much of SW KS, favoring the central/eastern zones.
Much of this QPF (<0.10") should take the form of freezing drizzle
resulting in light icing on exposed surfaces. With temperatures
so far below freezing, this icing process will be efficient
overnight, despite modest QPF. Roadways and sidewalks will be
slick and hazardous in the morning. Further north in the deeper
cold air, more of this light precipitation will take the form of
light snow. Additionally, freezing fog will continue to lower
visibility to less than 1 mile at times, adding to the overnight
hazards.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021
Shallow cold airmass was firmly entrenched across southwest and west
central Kansas. The first round of very light freezing drizzle waned
around midday, but freezing fog continued across far southwest
Kansas (except Elkhart!) as of 21Z. Elkhart broke out into sun
finally, with their temperature shooting up to around 50 degrees.
Just east of there at Hugoton, it was 29F. Now that we have reached
the diurnal maximum of the day, the very slight northeastward
advancement of the warm air will cease. Surface winds out of the
south-southeast will back around to the east later this evening,
which will keep freezing fog in place, and even expanding in
coverage overnight. Another round of shallow layer warm advection
will develop tonight, supporting development of freezing drizzle and
snow flurries. This morning, we observed freezing drizzle in Dodge
City with a 0-1km AGL minimum temperature around -11C, which is
about the lower limit for freezing drizzle vs. light snow, as in
most cases, ice nuclei activates -10C or colder, and almost always -
15C or colder. It will be -12C or colder generally north of the
Arkansas River tonight, so areas north of the Arkansas River will
likely see more off and on flurries instead of freezing drizzle.
That said, any little bit of freezing drizzle will cause additional
slick spots tonight.
We have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory west to the Colorado
border and extended it out to 18Z Monday. Much of the event farther
west will be freezing fog, but even out toward the Colorado border,
there may be enough turbulent mixing and enough of a saturated layer
to support some light freezing drizzle, mainly after 06Z tonight.
After 06Z, the surface winds will continue to back around to a more
northerly component, and this will resume the surface cold
advection. This should help suppress the freezing drizzle area to
just areas closer to the Oklahoma border by daybreak Monday before
the entire shallow layer precipitation area shifts east deeper into
central Kansas. Monday`s weather will be much like today, socked in
low stratus clouds except breaking out in the west later in the
afternoon. High temperature Monday will again be a challenge, with
another day of a fairly high gradient in highs from 42F at Elkhart
to 13F at Hays.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021
The arctic cold wave is expected to continue through the entire Long
Term period through Sunday. Highs in the teens to lower 20s are
expected every day Tuesday through Sunday, although confidence in
the duration of the cold wave is still fairly low after Saturday.
The ECMWF is a little warmer now on its 12Z run for the latter
portion of the Long Term period, however the GFS and Canadian models
are still quite bullish on keeping the brutally cold airmass going
through the late weekend, 14 February. The next wave to bring any
accumulating snow to western Kansas looks to be around Friday Night-
Saturday, but synoptic details are still sketchy at best with the
three major deterministic models GFS, Canadian, ECMWF all singing a
different tune. So, confidence in a big snow event affecting
southwest Kansas during or toward the end of this cold wave is still
fairly low at this time. That said, today`s runs of the global
models are starting to show a larger scale system developing across
the West late weekend, moving out across the central CONUS Sunday
Night into Monday. Again, this is a week away, so there is plenty of
time to watch and see how this unfolds in the numerical prediction
realm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 443 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021
High confidence that very poor aviation conditions will continue
through the balance of this TAF cycle, with the terminals
entrenched in shallow arctic air near the surface. Widespread LIFR
stratus ceilings late this afternoon will only reestablish and/or
lower further after sunset. In addition, reduced visibility will
continue in BR/FZDZ/FZFG, down to 1/4 sm at times (VLIFR). Light
icing on runways and aircraft will continue, particularly in areas
where freezing drizzle is predominant versus snow flurries. Given
today`s trends, and the fact that arctic air will only be
reinforced Monday, kept TAFs for daylight Monday very pessimistic,
with stratus persisting at all airports through the daylight
hours. With a drier boundary layer, surface visibility over 6 sm
should be maintained at HYS, although IFR stratus is expected at
HYS as well. E/SE winds of 10-15 kts presently will back to NEly
at similar speeds tonight through Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 11 21 8 20 / 20 10 0 0
GCK 11 25 9 22 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 23 42 15 31 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 19 33 14 25 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 5 15 2 11 / 20 10 0 0
P28 17 22 11 19 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for
KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner