Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 12/23/20

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

 529 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours. Wind speeds are expected to remain up overnight
as they slowly veer to the west and northwest ahead of a strong
cold front which will barrel through on Wednesday morning. Not a
great time to be flying light aircraft with the wind and
associated turbulence.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CST Tue Dec 22 2020/

SHORT TERM...
High temperatures for this afternoon are on track to be 10-15
degrees higher than climatology. The southwest surface flow will
remain breezy overnight behind the shortwave ridge exiting to the
east. An RFD for our area, highlighting the gusty winds and higher
temps will expire at 6pm CST. Overnight lows will be seasonably cool
with the elevated winds and increasing clouds keeping temperatures
from cratering by sunrise tomorrow.

The front that will impact us tomorrow is still taking shape over
the northwest. The winds will become northerly for most of us by
late morning tomorrow, with the strongest post frontal winds across
our CWA in the afternoon. The NBM winds were increased closer to MOS
guidance, but not up to advisory levels. Highs tomorrow will be 20-
25 degrees cooler than today. Unfortunately this is yet another dry
frontal passage, though we will see clouds fill in behind the front
to help remind us of the Winter season.

LONG TERM...
A warming trend will commence on Thursday as the upper flow over
the bulk of the CONUS de-amplifies and becomes more zonal with
time. High temperatures will increase from the 50s on Thursday to
the 60s on Saturday before dropping a bit on Sunday. The bigger
changes potentially come early next week. Models are pretty
consistent in developing a closed low over California on Monday
and then inland toward the 4-corners by Tuesday night, although
increasing spread in the solutions at that time do not lend a lot
of confidence just yet. Still, 20-30 percent PoPs look reasonable
beginning late Monday night and continuing through Tuesday.
Increased cloud cover Monday and Tuesday will help limit diurnal
range of temperatures with highs expected to be in the 40s and 50s
both days.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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