Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 12/07/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 PM CST Sun Dec 6 2020
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Night/
The radar scope will be much quieter tonight as our upper low
responsible for last evenings/this mornings sprinkles and light
rain continues to depart to the east. In its wake, dry air and
northerly breezes continue. These breezes will subside through the
evening hours. This coupled with mostly clear skies---outside of
a few mid-level clouds---will facilitate excellent radiational
cooling conditions. I`ve nudged overnight lows down closer toward
NAM and consensus MOS numbers. This results in widespread 30s with
areas near and northwest of a Comanche to Denton to Gainesville
line seeing readings dip into the upper 20s. Some mid 20s are
possible for some of the low- lying/sheltered areas (e.g.,
Eastland, Palo Pinto and Jack counties). I also included frost for
the overnight hours across a good portion of the area. While all
locations have experienced a freeze, any remaining sensitive
vegetation will be susceptible to frost.
Monday will feature slightly milder conditions compared to Sunday
for some locales as light west flow develops over the area. Given
today`s highs (largely in the upper 50s and mid 60s), I`ve sided
with some of the warmer guidance, especially with the favorable
downslope component to the wind....albeit weak. Areas near and
west of I-35 should warm into the mid to upper 60s, while parts of
East TX will remain under the influence of weak CAA. Highs here
will only climb into the upper 50s and low 60s. Mostly sunny skies
are anticipated areawide. Another cool night is expected Monday
night, but continued light west winds may help keep temperatures
from cratering.
Bain
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 146 PM CST Sun Dec 6 2020/
/Monday Night through Sunday/
Texas will be sandwiched between an upper level low cut off near
Baja and a deep trough across the eastern US Monday night through
midweek. This will lead to very pleasant weather with clear
skies, light winds, and low daytime humidity. Afternoon highs will
warm into the 70s for most locations while overnight lows will
benefit from good radiational cooling and will drop into the 30s.
By Thursday an incoming Pacific coast trough will kick the cut off
low toward the region and southerly flow will organize. This will
bring increasing moisture/cloud cover and much warmer overnight
lows. The passage of the upper system on Friday will be
accompanied by a cold front. Dynamics favorable for strong lift
and sufficient moisture along and ahead of the front will lead to
a chance of rain and few storms Friday. Model guidance has trended
toward a more favorable setup for rain over the last day and QPF
has increased to a quarter to half inch. It appears that surface
instability will not be sufficient for a threat of severe weather,
but if the system were to slow down about 12 hours this could
present itself over the eastern zones.
Cooler air will filter into the region Friday night with
temperatures returning to near normal over the weekend. While we
still can`t yet rule out rain chances Saturday and Sunday, the
trend in the ensemble guidance has been toward a more progressive
forecast which matches the suite of deterministic solutions.
Therefore the forecast will not mention rain and instead favor a
cool and sunny weekend.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00 UTC TAF Cycle/
Concerns---None major. VFR.
VFR will prevail through the entire TAF cycle. Northerly breezes
will subside and become more westerly with speeds at or below 10
knots. A few clouds may linger at D10 TAFs, but I anticipate that
SKC will prevail in an hour or two. Outside of some patchy frost
on idle aircraft overnight, no real significant aviation weather
concerns exist.
Bain
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 35 64 39 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 35 64 35 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 33 59 37 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 30 63 32 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 31 62 33 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 36 63 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 33 61 36 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 38 61 40 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 34 64 37 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 31 65 36 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$