Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 10/22/20

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

 931 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, along with dry and warm weather, will continue
across the region through the remainder of the work week. Over
the weekend, a cold front will cross the region along with some
scattered showers. After a brief break in the weather on Monday,
another cold front is expected to cross the region Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 925 PM EDT Wednesday...

A pleasant fall night underway across the Appalachians and
central mid Atlantic region with satellite imagery showing
mainly mid/high clouds. However, expect some stratus and fog
will develop later tonight mainly in the valleys west of the
Blue Ridge. Guidance is also pushing some moisture a bit
further into the region from the east with time so expect there
will also be some fog and low clouds developing east of the
Ridge around Southside late.

Previous discussion...

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic with a 588dm
ridge centered just offshore continues to dominate our weather
locally, keeping conditions dry and temperatures well above
normal. High pressure will continue to be in control through
Thursday keeping the cold front well to the west. Should be
enough clearing and low level moisture for another round of fog
development overnight. Fog and any lingering morning clouds
should once again give way to another sunny and warm Thursday.

Temperatures today have already surged well into the 70s with some
80s already being reported across the Piedmont of Virginia. With
that in mind, will bump up the high temperatures a couple degrees
for this afternoon, especially for Roanoke and east into the
foothills/Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina. Temperatures fall
overnight into the 50s with a few 40s in sheltered locations. With
ridging still overhead, expect another quick warm up tomorrow with
widespread 70s with a few locations possibly topping 80 again.
Although warmer than average, record high temperatures still likely
to remain unchallenged.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM EDT Wednesday...

Weakness in the upper flow will nudge north across the area
Thursday night into Friday with little fanfare except clouds, as
high pressure stays in place over eastern Virginia into NC.

Ridge starts to break down Friday night into Saturday as a front
moves across the Ohio and TN Valleys. At the moment, not overly
impressed with rain chances at least in terms of amounts as flow is
west-southwest, so not getting much inflow from the Gulf. As such
will likely see higher pops in the 30-40 range in the mountains
Saturday, with low chance east. Amounts overall will be under a
tenth of an inch.

Front pushes southeast Sat night with maybe some lingering showers
Sat evening in the east.

Despite the ridge breaking down, temps to remain above normal with
highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s mountains, to mid 70s to near 80
east. Lows will run in the 50s.

Confidence in the forecast is moderate on rain chances but high on
the rest of the weather parameters.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...

Keeping with a similar forecast from previous, but model differences
remain between the GFS and Euro, with the Euro showing more ridging
in the upper levels over the Gulf Coast states next week, while the
GFS hangs the ridge off the southeast coast with more of a southwest
flow aloft and split flow further west across the Plains. As such
some differences at the surface.

Sunday will see high pressure wedging southward into the area, and
with some easterly fetch, a few showers are possible. High temps
will be cooler in the 60s, except some 70s far SW Va.

This high will weaken starting Monday into Tuesday with another
front arriving midweek. In general, the models are not too far off
at least to their rain forecast, though the GFS shows a little more
rainfall than the Euro thanks to the southwest flow, as opposed to
more west flow in the Euro.

At the moment will lean toward a blend which has Tuesday with better
chances of showers, with drier wx for Wednesday. Confidence is
moderate Sunday-Monday, falling to low for midweek.

Temperatures look to stay around normal for highs and above normal
for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 925 PM EDT Wednesday...

No appreciable change in the pattern so will go with a
persistence forecast similar to the past few days. Expect VFR
sites with IFR in fog/stratus developing late tonight in the
valleys west of the Blue Ridge, but also expect moisture in the
east may affect KLYH and KDAN. Will return to VFR by mid
morning Thursday all sites with a bit more clouds during the
afternoon east of the Ridge.

Winds will generally be light with little impact to aircraft
operations.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

More fog is possible Thursday night/Friday morning. Isolated
MVFR showers are possible mainly in the mountains Friday night.
These conditions look to spread east by Saturday as our next
front crosses through the area.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...MBS/BMG
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...MBS/BMG