Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 08/04/20

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 809 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Kind of another dud day along the Front Range with the best pulse
storm earlier southeast of Denver and over the southern Front
Range foothills this afternoon. The rest of the plains have been
quiet so far. Radar imagery showing some weak convection now along
the Continental divide with light showers and some wind, while
another batch of weakening convection over southeast Wyoming which
is skirting our far northern plains with scattered showers.

Evening sounding at KDNR still had some promise with just an ever so
weak cap in place and a bit surprised we didn`t have more storms.
Water vapor imagery did look somewhat subsident over the Denver area
and right under the jet streak so maybe this feature has squashed
convection somewhat. Hi resolution models don`t have much stronger
convection overnight but a bit concerned about outflow from storms
coming off the hills in the next few hours and potential to light up
more convection.  Will at least keep in some low pops for the rest
of the evening, and somewhat higher pops up further north towards
Wyoming and Nebraska.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Latest ACARs sounding from early this afternoon has a moderate
northwesterly flow aloft over the region with 70 kts around 200
mb. RAP ML CAPES around 1500 j/kg with EFF Shear 30-35kts. A
dissipating cell produced a peak wind gust to 60 mph earlier this
afternoon in Walden. Storms this afternoon moving fairly fast, so
any heavy rainfall that develops should be brief. Latest HRRR for
this afternoon and evening, seems to have the highest
thunderstorm coverage over western and southern portions of the
Denver area, moving most of those storms into the Palmer Divide by
early this evening. Strong wind gusts to 60 mph and hail around
one inch the main impact from the stronger storms. Less coverage
elsewhere, but another cluster of thunderstorms impact northeast
We and Logan counties late this evening. Isolated thunderstorms
may linger over the far northeast plains after midnight, but quiet
elsewhere.

On Tuesday, another round of thunderstorms expected. Instability
and shear parameters will continue to allow for marginal or slgt
risk of severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds the
main threats, similar to the last few days. ML CAPE values closer
to 2000 j/kg in the Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures similar
to today as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Thunderstorms that formed earlier in the day will be tracking
southeast across the eastern plains. Still a chance a few storms
could develop along the Front Range as well. With MLCAPE of 1500-
2000 J/kg and Bulk shear of 35-45 knots some of the storms are
expected to be strong to severe during the early evening. Most, if
not all the convection is expected to end by midnight as the
airmass stabilizes.

Northwest flow aloft will persist into Wednesday around an upper
level ridge that extends from the Southern Rockies northwest to
the Great Basin. Southeasterly low level flow will keep low level
moisture across the Front Range and eastern plains. MLCAPE climbs
up to 2000 J/kg Wednesday afternoon with Bulk shear of 30-40
knots. This should result in some strong to severe storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. With little change in the
airmass, high temperatures will be similar to the past few days
as readings reach the mid to upper 80s.

The upper level ridge axis shifts eastward and will move across
Colorado Thursday. This will result in a westerly flow aloft. A
trough of surface low pressure will be somewhere along the Front
Range. To the east of it, enough moisture and instability will
exist for another round of scattered strong/severe storms. To the
west of the boundary, it will be drier with isolated high based
convection. Temperature are expected to warm a little with upper
80s and lower 90s across northeast Colorado.

For Friday through Monday, the upper level ridge sets up over the
Southern and Central Rockies. This will result in a west to
southwest flow aloft depending on where the center is. Drier and
warmer air will be transported into the area. This will cause the
chance for rain to decrease. High based showers and storms will be
possible most day over the higher terrain with a few moving off
to the east. Gusty winds and light rainfall will main features
with the convection. If low level moisture is able to sneak in
from the east. Stronger storms will be possible. Highs are
expected to climb into the 90s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 804 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Strong outflow southerly winds have impacted DEN/APA over the past
hour with some weakening in the overall winds expected through 03z
with light drainage winds the rest of tonight. The caveat is
showers that are moving over the mountains now and may impact the
terminals with w-nw winds and some showers between 03-05z. Might
need to make some adjustments with this in upcoming updates to
account for this.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Entrekin




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

 625 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR condtions are expected through the TAF period. Any TS that
survive coming off the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico
is likely to stay west of the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020/

SHORT TERM...
Northwest flow continues across the region this afternoon with a
weak disturbance making its way southeast along a line from Roswell
to Texline to Goodland, KS.  The lift is subtle though it is
assisting in convective development across the Raton Mesa.  A MCV is
evident on visible sat across the northeastern TX Panhandle though
its trajectory looks to keep clear from our area save for a few mid
to high level clouds in our NERN zones. Here in West Texas, we are
under the influence of subsidence both from the upper level high to
our west as well as a boost behind the MCS off to our SE.  FCST and
AMDAR soundings depict inversions which should keep convection
suppressed.  On a day like today, it`s always possible to get a
storm to fire but the observational data suggest this should be the
exception rather than the rule this afternoon. Cu fields are very
flat as of 19Z though several hours of sfc heating remain. The NERN
NM convection looks as if may make it into the NWRN counties late
this evening providing some light accumulations up that way. Given
the approaching upper level lift mentioned above, these storms may
stick together more persistently than typical during the overnight
hours. Tomorrow looks to be warmer though most everyone should
remain dry during the day. Jurecka

LONG TERM...
Still more NW flow in the coming days...this around upper high
centered across nrn Mexico west of El Paso. Best opportunity for
convection Tue will be in the evening and overnight hours mainly
across our NE zones although it may remain farther NE as activity
grows upscale into MCS along instability axis. Could see some storms
move off the higher terrain in NM and affect the SW Panhandle late.
The upper high will build eastward toward midweek and that will
supress all but isolated storms Wednesday and Thursday and those
will remain primarily in the northern zones around the periphery of
the dirty ridge in a more westerly flow. ECMWF looks a little
stronger as compared to GFS with the ridge centered over SW Texas
late in the week. 500 mb heights increase further to 595+ dm into
the weekend. Certainly appears that pops will be decreasing even
across the southern Panhandle with a sliver of slight chance
remaining near the NM border Friday into the weekend. Temperatures
will remain above normal in the mid to upper 90s on the Caprock
and around 100 degrees in the SE Panhandle and Rolling Plains as
the doldrums of summer prevail. James

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07