Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/24/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1011 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020
.UPDATE...
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the tropical cyclone
in the central Gulf of Mexico this evening found winds for the NHC
to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Hanna. The overall
forecast thinking with regards to impacts to our area from this
system remains unchanged with periods of heavy rainfall being
possible across the area through the weekend. As a result, the
inherited forecast remains largely on track with no adjustments
needed for the Marine and Coastal Flood hazards currently in
effect. The only changes made with this update were to trend
toward the latest short term guidance which has lower PoPs across
inland portions of the forecast area through the overnight hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020/
AVIATION...
Radar continues to display small bands of shwrs and maybe a tstm
or two movg quickly to the west this eve associated w/ the
northern fringe of TD8. In addition... sfc winds remain a little
brisk along the coastal counties/parishes but this is expected to
taper off a bit thru the eve hours as the small bands should also fall
apart but will cont in the cstl wtrs. Looking at VFR wx this
evening thru sunrise. As TD8 moves twrds the s-cntrl Tx coast tmrw
will see more storm actvty than we currently are displaying on
NWS radars.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020/
DISCUSSION...
Scattered small showers associated with the outer "bands" of
tropical depression 8 have been increasing through the afternoon
as expected. High res guidance has handled this well and
continues to show this activity continuing through mid evening
before becoming more isolated over land after sunset. Scattered to
widespread showers will continue over the coastal waters through
the night before spreading back inland once again Friday morning.
The forecast philosophy over the first 48 hours revolves around
the evolution of tropical depression 8 which looks a bit more
organized on visible satellite this afternoon although hurricane
hunter aircraft have not found the system much stronger this
afternoon. Hoisted small craft advisories across the coastal
waters from east to west beginning late tonight across the outer
coastal waters and the nearshore waters tomorrow morning. While
marginal based on the latest PETSS guidance, a coastal flood
advisory was also issued for all coastal parishes and counties in
anticipation of the potential for nuisance coastal flooding.
PoPs and temperatures were adjusted only cosmetically through
Saturday compared to the previous forecast. An elongated upper
level low (with some form of surface reflection) will maintain
highly elevated precipitation chances through at least mid week.
Even at a consistent 80 to 90 PoPs each afternoon, the forecast
actually fell a bit below the guidance consensus which has been
trending closer to 100 percent the last couple of days. Despite
the relatively limited flash flood threat across the area from TD
8, a larger flash flood risk may develop early next week owing to
the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.
PoPs finally begin to drop to a more climatological average late
in the week although scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible.
Jones
MARINE...
Tropical Depression 8 continues to track west northwest across
the central Gulf of Mexico, and is forecast to move toward the
middle Texas coast into the weekend. The system is expected to
bring an increase in winds and seas, as well as scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters. Marine
interests should continue to monitor the latest on this tropical
system. Winds and seas will improve by Sunday, but elevated
precipitation chances will continue through midweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 89 73 88 / 40 80 30 90
LCH 77 87 76 86 / 40 80 70 100
LFT 77 89 76 86 / 40 80 50 90
BPT 78 88 77 85 / 50 80 70 100
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for
LAZ052>054-073-074.
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for TXZ215.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for GMZ472-475.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ470.
Small Craft Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ470.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for GMZ450-
452-455.
Small Craft Exercise Caution until 5 AM CDT Friday for GMZ450-
452-455.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...26