Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/14/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
948 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020
.UPDATE...
Forecast continued unchanged. We updated several products with
ending of daylight to crop out mentions of today, this afternoon,
etc. High-based showers and thunderstorms were edging across the
Texas Panhandle, and western/northern South Plains. There may be a
few sprinkles or light showers as far south as Morton to Lubbock
and also still a potential for locally strong wind gusts though we
are not seeing sustained tall reflectivity cores late this
evening like we saw briefly earlier in the evening. Also,
temperatures were still close to 100 degrees for many locations
and another very warm night is on the way. We haven`t yet see
updated guidance temperatures for Tuesday but we expect they will
be quite similar to the high temperatures recorded today. So, no
change to the Heat highlights either. RMcQueen
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020/
AVIATION...
A small cluster of high-based convection continues to hound the
KPVW area, or just slightly to the west of KPVW but near enough to
include continued mention of thunder and wind gust potential in
the KPVW TAF for another couple hours. High-based cumulus
otherwise were dissipating over KLBB and KCDS. We will be watching
next batch of high-based convective activity moving into the
western Panhandle and South Plains from eastern New Mexico over
the next few hours, for potential continued impact mainly for the
KPVW terminal. Wind continues the primary feature of these high-
based cells. Also, today has been the hottest day thus far in this
Heat Wave and tomorrow looks quite similar to todays temperature.
So, Density Altitude issues may exist for any heavily loaded
aircraft at least through the daytime and evening hours. RMcQueen
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020/
SHORT TERM...
I`ve written this several times already the past few days, but the
dangerous heat remains front and center. We have extended the
heat headlines (Excessive Heat Warning for the South Plains and
Heat Advisory for the southern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains)
through Tuesday evening.
The main theme hasn`t changed as a stubborn and intense upper ridge
remains in control of our weather locally, providing us with near
record to record heat. This afternoon will likely finish as the
hottest to this point, as 19Z temperatures are already near or above
105 over the entire CWA. Most of the area will likely finish with
high temperatures near or above the 110 degree mark. We could even
see a few spots off the Caprock close to 115 degrees, aided by the
dry and breezy downsloping winds. Unfortunately, the pattern won`t
change very much in the next 24 hours, so after another warm night,
temperatures will soar well up into the triple digits. Given this,
we have extended the heat headlines through 9 PM Tuesday.
The intense heating combined with sufficient moisture/instability is
causing high-based convection to unfold across the higher terrain of
central and northern New Mexico. This activity will propagate
eastward, with isolated to widely scattered very high-based activity
spilling across the state line late this afternoon, and persisting
into the evening hours across the southern Texas Panhandle and
northern South Plains. Rainfall will be spotty and light, but strong
to severe caliber downburst winds will be possible given the deeply
mixed, hot and dry boundary layer. Mid-level debris clouds and a few
elevated showers could linger into early Tuesday morning, favoring
the northern half or so of the FA.
Another day of dry and hot downslope winds will follow tomorrow as a
surface trough makes more eastward headway than today. In addition
to providing another round of near record to record heat, isolated
very high-based convection may develop more squarely over the South
Plains late Tuesday afternoon...along the surface trough. A few
spots could get minor relief from the heat from this activity, but
strong/severe downburst winds will again be the primary concern with
limited rainfall.
LONG TERM...
The heat and high pressure will continue to dominate our pattern
through the long term, even as the extreme heat subsides
somewhat. Precipitation chances in the northern South Plains and
southwest Texas Panhandle continue for Wednesday evening into
early Thursday morning as the center of the persistent ridge gets
pulled to the east slightly by an extended trough axis over the
Great Lakes. Fortunately this will cool temperatures aloft and
help ease the extreme heat somewhat, but highs will still hover
around 100 for most of us on the Caprock through the rest of the
work week and continue at or just above 100 to the east off the
Caprock. H85 temps have been in the low to mid 30C`s for the
duration of the heat wave and will drop back, steadily into the
20C`s by Thursday. Unfortunately there isn`t much of a signal in
the extended guidance for a drastic pattern change for at least a
couple of weeks, which isn`t unusual this time of the year as the
Polar Jet positions well to our north. Another weak upper level
trough tries to penetrate the dome of high pressure late this
weekend and provide some showers and storms in our northwest
zones, similar to today, tomorrow and Wednesday. Otherwise, we are
mostly cutoff from the monsoon moisture through the extended and
remain mostly dry.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ021>026-031-032-037-
038-043-044.
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ027>030-
033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
05/99