Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/03/20

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

 703 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low Pressure over New England has moved offshore today.
Meanwhile, an area of high pressure shifted east and is over the
Midwest. As high pressure edges into the region through the
weekend, warm and muggy conditions will continue with
temperatures near or just above normal. Coverage of
thunderstorms will gradually increase from isolated Friday to
scattered over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Thursday...

The region will be in between a low off the New England coast
and an upper level ridge over the Midwest by tonight. For the
immediate area, a weak surface ridge will keep the area
relatively stable with very little chances for an afternoon
thunderstorm. A few of the convective models are showing some
weak convergence along the Blue Ridge this afternoon. With the
help of diurnal heating, there may be a few brief showers late
this afternoon, then decaying in the evening. High temperatures
will range in the 80s west of the Blue Ridge to low 90s east.

Almost a similar setup for Friday as compared to today with the
area remaining in between systems. However, we will start to
transition to becoming more influenced by the upper ridge rather
than the upper low. With heights increasing aloft, temperatures
Friday will be a degree or two warmer than today. Can not rule
out a brief afternoon shower due to heating and/or orographical
influences.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM EDT Thursday...

The upper ridge over the Midwest Saturday morning will slowly
build east into Sunday night. The weak flow aloft will combine
with heating, low level convergence and orographic lift to
generate diurnal convection with the best opportunity across the
higher terrain. High temperatures on Independence Day will
range from the mid 70s in the mountains to the lower 90s in the
piedmont. Most of the convection will end in time for the
fireworks displays. Saturday night will be mild and humid with
low temperatures from the lower 60s in the mountains to the
lower 60s in the piedmont. The air will become more humid as we
approach Sunday. The coverage of storms will increase on Sunday
afternoon and evening. This is supported on the GFS and ECMWF.
High temperatures on Sunday will vary from the upper 70s in the
west to around 90 degrees in the southeast. The good news is
that most of the scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
forced by diurnal heating will diminish after sunset. Low
temperatures Sunday night will generally be from the upper 50s
in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the piedmont.

Medium confidence in short term forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Thursday...

The operational models and ensemble means maintain good
agreement and consistency for the large scale pattern evolution.
The Northeast U.S. mean trough should give way to increasingly
progressive nearly zonal flow. The upper ridge with its eastern
edge over us will grow stagnant and not move much through the
midweek. Surface low will form Monday morning around the Florida
panhandle and lift northeast to off the Carolinas coast
Tuesday. Then, the low pressure center heads out into the
Atlantic ocean Wednesday into Friday. The medium range models
continue to have differences on placement and timing of the low.


Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
during the long range. High temperatures will generally be from
The upper 70s in the mountains to the lower 90s east of the Blue
Ridge. Low temperatures will be mild with readings from the
lower 60s in the west to the lower 70s in the east.

Medium confidence in long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...

Expect mainly VFR conditions at TAF sites through the forecast
period with any lingering isolated showers dissipating around
sundown. A repeat of valley fog west of the Blue Ridge seems
like a good bet, but low confidence in how much the airfields at
KLWB and KBCB will be affected so will tempo these 2 sites to
IFR toward daybreak without a predominate obvis. Believe there
was enough drying today to keep fog out of other TAF sites.

May cook up a few isolated showers again tomorrow but with expected
sparse coverage will not need any vicinity mentions.

Winds will be light through the period with no impact to
aircraft operations.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The threat for scattered afternoon and evening pulse
thunderstorms increases this weekend and continues into early
next week as moisture and warm temperatures become more
widespread.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MBS/RCS