Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/27/20

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 912 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Updated the forecast to expire the watch and adjust current
temperatures. Severe convection has died out for the most part,
and what`s left has exited the forecast area. A few lingering
thunderstorms quickly diminishing as the atmosphere stabilizes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Main concern is still severe weather potential through this evening
across much of Eastern Colorado. Severe thunderstorm watch has
already been issued for all of Eastern Colorado until 03z. Primary
threats still will be damaging winds up to 70 mph, large hail and
heavy rain. Still a few tornadoes are possible especially over the
Palmer Divide with southeasterly convergent flow expected there
this afternoon.

As for stability on the plains, latest ACARS soundings still
showing a weak inversion given a 81/50 temperature/dewpoint with
still some CIN over the plains. Current cloud cover from anvils
also limiting additional heating and Denver metro area may be
spared the worst of the severe weather. On the other hand the
Palmer Divide again looks to be the focus with still good heating
and CAPE values now approaching 2000j/kg based on latest LAPS
analysis. As storms shift east over the plains later this afternoon
and evening, looks like linear, cluster of storms will become
more outflow dominated with strong winds the main impact. HRRR
peak wind gusts showing these strong winds over Lincoln and
Washington counties up to 60kt. Storms will be diminishing from
west to east by later this evening.

On Saturday, the upper trof across northern Utah will gradually
shift across Colorado Saturday afternoon and evening. This feature
will help to spark another round of convection. Temperatures will
be warmer with readings back into the mid and upper 80s. The
atmosphere will be a bit drier with precipitable water values
down between a half and 3/4 of an inch while dewpoints will be a
bit lower in the 40s at least over the Front Range. Forecast
soundings showing more inverted v type profile over the Front
Range with more return to our "new normal" outflow winds being the
main threat. Appears the focus for the stronger storms will be
east and south of Denver along some convergence with strong
southeasterly flow across the Palmer Divide and stretching
northeast through Washington counties. SPC has the area under a
marginal risk and this looks good for main impact of strong winds
and possibly large hail.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Upper trough will be directly over the area Saturday evening, to
help sustain ongoing storm activity out over the eastern plains,
while areas further west will be quickly drying out. Could still
be some strong storms ongoing as they head further east out of the
state by midnight. Cooler minimum temperatures are expected
overnight, and clearing skies will allow mountain locations to see
readings dipping into the 30s.

An upper low dropping southeast over the Pacific Northwest Sunday
will dig its trough south into the Great Basin and down over
Southern California through Monday. This will increase
southwesterly flow across the state, ushering in warmer and drier
air over the state each day. Readings in the mid 90s to near 100
will be across the plains, with 60s to near 80 in the mountains
and high valleys. Scattered to numerous high terrain thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon will decrease to only isolated by Monday. Winds
will be increasing over the high terrain and eastern plains,
especially Monday in advance of an expected cold front. Will keep
an eye on speeds as humidity will be in the 10 to 15 percent
range over the plains.

The main energy of the trough will end up lifting northeast across
the Northern Rockies back into Canada Monday night into Tuesday,
dragging the trough across the area. A cold front is expected to
push down around the same time to bring upslope flow, cooler
temperatures and higher moisture, resulting in higher CAPE. Wind
shear looks to increase as the upper jet over the area combines
with the upslope flow for better chance for stronger
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday will remain cooler,
with more stable and dry conditions.

An upper high will be building up from Old Mexico and West Texas
for Thursday and Friday to bring warmer temperatures. Just enough
subtropical moisture caught up under the ridge looks to keep in
diurnally driven afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Showers and thunderstorms in the TAF site vicinity and will
continue until 02z. Wind gusts to 30 mph, small hail, and very
heavy rainfall possible with storms. After storms clear, wind will
settle down to southwest through the night with VFR. Another
round of high based thunderstorms with gusty wind potential
Saturday afternoon after 20-21z.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Hanson