Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/10/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with southerly flow
expected through this evening, then northerly flow after a weak
front moves through the region tonight. Timing of the FROPA is
around 3z to 4z for CLL, then about 7z to 8z for IAH, then around
9z to 10z along the coast. The FROPA will bring CIGS of three to
five thousand feet with the FROPA along with isolated to scattered
showers. Coverage of the showers will be higher HOU southward.
Skies will be mostly clear through the day tomorrow with breezy
northerly winds.
Fowler
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday night]...
After a scorcher of a day, the approach and passage of a dry line
boundary (pre-frontal trof) may be the impetus to evening into
early Wednesday morning pre-dawn shower and thunderstorm activity.
Timing is key as to whether any convection that blossoms does evolve
into a strong or severe threat. Discrete cells forming due to
lift above a weakened 7-925H regional cap (noted on earlier local
ACARS soundings) will go up quick if they can tap into near 7 deg
C/km lapse rate mid layer air. The potential is all there with
super CAPE in the 3-3.5k range / neg 12 L.I.`s that indicate, if
the parcel can lifted into the mid levels during peak heating within
a near 2 inch northern county pwat air mass, there is a mentionable
threat for strong to severe storm evolution. The backing synoptic
front (southern periphery of the northwestern Texas high) is
forecast to catch up with the leading pre-frontal trof/dry line
near the coast tomorrow morning around sunrise. Both the CAMS and
global NWP solutions produce light overnight central and coastal
county QPF in the vicinity of the front. Forecast calls for lower
end chance PoPs for mainly showers/isolated storms from around the
city south and east through the dawn hour.
Dry air advection will whisk away resident 70-ish F dew point air
and replace it with 50-ish dew point air. Thus, today`s hot and
muggy Houston area weather will feel more Phoenix-like...hot and
dry over the next several days or until the flow comes back
around to onshore introducing Gulf air later this week or early
next week. The overall mid week theme will be for more pleasant,
near to slightly below normal morning temperature trends. Days
will warm to near to slightly above normal upper 80s to lower
90s...lower humidity will keep these late spring season heat
indices in check. 31
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...
Should be a fairly dry/quiet period for much of this period as light
N/NE winds prevail. While daytime highs will be at/near normal (low-
er 90s)...overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 60s (for inland
locations) should be a pleasant respite. As the upper ridge to the W
flattens and the surface high shifts to the NE, we`ll have to keep a
closer eye for increasing moistures/weak disturbances moving in from
the east (across the northern Gulf) late in the weekend (mainly Sun/
early Mon). However, not seeing a great deal of model consensus with
this idea, so will keep POPs mostly dry for this time frame. 41
.MARINE...
Winds/seas have decreased a bit this afternoon and did let the SCEC
drop as previously scheduled. The next cold front/dry line looks to
be on track to move off the coast overnight. Caution flags may go up
once again tomorrow night as the dry N/NE winds mix down. Otherwise
this light/moderate offshore flow is progged to remain in place over
our marine waters until late in the upcoming weekend when the upper
flow becomes more zonal and the surface high shifts to the NE U.S..
The return of isolated activity over the coastal waters could occur
by late Sun into Mon if we do get the surge of deeper moisture (and
a weak disturbance from the E) as hinted at by some of the models.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 91 63 93 65 / 20 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 72 92 67 93 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 89 76 90 76 / 40 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula.
GM...None.
&&
$$