Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/31/20

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 836 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

Not much to change at this time. Shower activity continues over
Larimer County along with a new shower developing over northern
Jefferson County which will move over Boulder, Broomfield and
other parts of northern Denver metro. Small hail, gusty winds and
brief heavy rain can be expected over the next hour or so. Another
strong storm has popped up over southern Lincoln County which will
produce brief heavy rain and small hail.

The evening RAOB at Denver showed a moist airmass in place over
northeast Colorado with a precipitable water value of 0.89
inches. Upslope and easterly winds across the plains will be able
to generate widely scattered shower activity for the next few
hours along outflow boundaries from the showers presently
occurring along the foothills. All of this is still covered in the
ongoing forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

Current satellite imagery shows storms continuing to build over the
higher terrain with west winds bringing them over the foothills and
into the western portions of the plains. Current ACARS soundings are
continuing to show a CAP over a large portion of the plains with a
break temperature well above what we will be able to see today.
However, CAMS continue to show gusty outflow winds with storms to
the west that will allow a trigger for development later this
evening. Model guidance puts a line of storms moving across the
metro area after 6 pm with slightly better storm motions. Even with
slightly higher mean wind storms could still produce heavy rain
with some flooding possible over low-lying areas and city streets.
In addition to the heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds from 30
to 40 mph will be possible. Some isolated storms could be severe
with hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts of 60 mph. Storms will
progress eastward through the early evening hours reaching more
moisture rich air and slightly more stability. This will help to
diminish any severe threat but will continue to have moderate to
heavy rain possible across portions of eastern Adams, Arapahoe,
Elbert and into Lincoln county through midnight.

For Sunday, an upper level trough will push through in the morning
with increasing southwesterly to westerly flow behind it. This will
dry out the low levels with model soundings showing inverted-V
signatures nearing 500 mb and DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. CAM
output has been fairly consistent with diurnal convection starting
over the higher terrain and pushing east during the late afternoon
hours with gusty winds being the main threat. Highs will be
slightly warmer than today with temperatures reaching into the
upper 80s across the plains and 50s to 60 in the high country.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

Little change in the overall weather pattern through Tuesday with
broad high pressure ridge aloft just east of Colorado while close
low remains off Southern California coast. 700mb temperatures
will be close to +15C for both Monday and Tuesday with resulting
high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees on the
plains. There should be ample moisture for at least isolated to
scattered coverage of storms each afternoon and evening as PW
values range from 3/4 to around an inch of water. Best chance for
storms will again be in mountains and adjacent plains and higher
terrain areas.

By late Tuesday and Wednesday the flow aloft will turn a bit more
westerly as a weak wave moves across the northern high plains and
flattens the upper ridge. Expect some slight cooling behind a
weak cold front but still ample low level moisture should be
sufficient for another round of storms.

By late Thursday and Friday, the California low expected to begin to
weaken and lift out in the southwest United States with increasing
moisture, especially by Friday afternoon and evening.  Temperatures
still expected to be above normal for this time of year with high
temperatures remaining in the upper 80s plains and 60s/70s in the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 836 PM MDT Sat May 30 2020

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms around the Denver
area for the next few hours, but KDEN and KAPA may make it through
without seeing any precipitation. Winds will be following the
outflow boundaries from present convection along the foothills for
the next few hours. Later on, winds should become drainage
southerlies.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Dankers