Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/30/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
447 PM PDT Fri May 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS...After three days of excessive heat, the ridge
responsible for the hot weather will shift east allowing for
temperatures to drop several degrees through the weekend. The cooler
temperatures will also be accompanied with gusty afternoon winds,
especially Saturday. This will result in near-critical and critical
fire weather concerns through the weekend. By early next week,
continued dry and breezy afternoons will be possible as well as low
end precip chances due to low pressure lingering near the region
through much of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...through the weekend.
Today is expected to be the last day of excessive heat as low
pressure off the coast moves inland and shift the ridge east. These
height falls will help drop temperatures about 8-10 degrees Saturday
and Sunday with temperatures only running a couple of degrees above
normal. Along with the cooler temperatures we will see increasing
south to southwest winds across the region...especially Saturday.
The strongest winds are expected to be across mainly our northern
zones where gusts between 40-50 mph will be common. Areas to the
south are expected to see winds generally between 30-40 mph. One
thing to note is that the high res models continue to hint at the
potential of strong downslope winds Saturday afternoon across the
eastern Sierra slopes. Wind gusts of 50 mph or greater is certainly
not out of the question and have gone ahead and issued a wind
advisory for this area. At this time it does not look like these
strong winds will make it all the way down the HWY 395, but areas
west of the highway should be prepared. These strong downslope winds
will also have a significant impact on any fire concerns in the
eastern Sierra as these winds are expected to be rather dry.
On Sunday, the models agree on lifting the low northeast fairly
quickly leaving in the area in a dry southwest flow. Wind speeds
across the region are expected to decrease, but still leave areas of
breezy to windy conditions. Held off on any additional fire weather
or wind advisories at this time as most of the area should see
winds near or below criteria.
.LONG TERM...Next Week.
The models are still having a difficult time dissecting next weeks
pattern with regards to the ridge over the southern states and
another low that forms over the eastern Pacific. The models remain
fairly consistent in keeping both these features in place, but
exactly where they set up is still in question. Any wobble of the
ridge to the west and temperatures will jump back to well above
normal and if the low sets up a little further toward the coast then
we will see temperatures only slightly above normal. It is noted
that both the Canadian and GFS are showing the potential of moisture
being pulled north next Thursday which could bring some isolated
showers and thunderstorms to the region. However, beyond Monday,
confidence is very low in the forecast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today is expected to be the last day of excessive
heat as an area of low pressure begins to move inland. This low will
help bring increasing south to southwest winds to the area Saturday
leading to some critical fire weather concerns for mainly Esmeralda,
central Nye, Lincoln, and Mohave Counties. The current Red Flag
Warnings for those areas look good. There will also be the potential
for seeing strong downslope winds in the southern Sierra which has
also led to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for CA Zone 226.
Areas to the south, such as Clark, San Bernardino, and eastern Inyo
County are still expected to see breezy to windy conditions, but
wind speeds are expected to remain just below criteria so no
products issued at this time.
Although we are expected to see breezy to locally windy conditions
again Sunday, these winds look to remain sub-critical and have
elected not to issue any fire products at this time, but will
continue to watch wind trends as we get closer for the potential of
additional headlines.
&&
.CLIMATE...Here are the record high temperatures for primary
climate locations today.
Location Today
Las Vegas 108/1984
Kingman 102/2003
Bishop 99/2003
Needles 118/1910
Barstow-Daggett 110/1984
Death Valley NP 118/2002
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty southerly winds are expected
through the evening, with gusts up to 30kts possible. After sunset,
winds will decrease, with strong gusts likely ending but wind speeds
remaining 10-15kts through most of the night. Winds may briefly fall
below 10kts for a few hours around 09z-12Z, but expecting winds to
increase through the morning, with predominantly south-southwest
gusts around 25kts returning in the morning, then gusts 30-35kts
possible Saturday afternoon. Low level turbulence will likely be an
issue through much of the TAF period as well so PIREP solicitation
will be encouraged.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty south or southwest winds are expected through
Saturday for all terminals. Widespread gusts of 20 to 30 knots will
be likely, with the strongest gusts of 30 to 40 knots at KBIH. Late
Saturday afternoon, winds may shift to the southwest for KBIH due to
downslope winds which could result in significant low level
turbulence, especially for aircraft approaching from or departing
towards the Sierra ridgetops.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/FIRE...Gorelow
AVIATION...TB3
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