Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/23/20

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

 1031 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will slowly give way to building high
pressure over the next several days. This will bring seasonably
warm weather with slowly decreasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend and into the first part of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1027 PM EDT Friday...

Expect a mainly quiet night weather wise, though fog could
become dense in spots, especially in the mountains and where it
rained. Forecast reflects patchy fog most areas overnight, but
extent of cloud cover and/or low clouds forming may hinder fog,
so not dense fog advisory planned.

Have cut pops back overnight where we will be mainly dry. Next
piece of energy along the backside of the upper low arrives Sat
morning after 12z across the upper TN valley which could bring
showers across the mountains of SW Va and NW NC by 15z/11am.

As far as rivers go, most are now cresting or falling, except
downstream areas of the Roanoke and Dan.

Previous discussion from early evening...

Flash flood watch cancelled as heavier showers are further east
and no threat of heavy rains will occur through tonight.

Forecast trends is for drier wx this evening with showers
exiting the piedmont by 9pm, with only isolated showers after
that mainly the mountains.

Will watch for how clouds trend overnight and fog forms, to
whether a dense fog advisory will be needed.

Previous discussion from early afternoon...

Showers/thunderstorms have developed upstream and will be moving
into the region through this afternoon/early evening. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible, mainly south of route 460. Any heavy
downpours may exacerbate existing flooding or create new flooding
so a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for portions of the area
where the threat is highest into this evening. Precipitation
will diminish later this evening followed by another bout of low
clouds/fog developing late tonight.

Saturday looks to have much the same flavor as today with morning fog
giving way to showers/thunder during the afternoon as some additional
short wave energy moves across the area, but signals are a bit weaker
so coverage of precipitation looks to be more limited.

Temperatures will be close to seasonal norms with lows tonight
around 60 east of the Blue Ridge, mid/upper 50s to the west.
Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 80s east, mid/upper 70s
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

The closed upper low that drove a wet week will make its exit into
the Atlantic late Saturday. Weak ridging will begin to set up over
our area for the weekend, and we will enter a fairly standard
springtime pattern for the rest of this period. Warm, humid days in
the 70s and 80s, with scattered thunderstorms possible most
afternoons. By Monday, an area of high pressure in the northern
Atlantic will create some wedging, creating enhanced chances for
storms along that boundary.

With the exceptional moisture from the recent rain event and the
first glimpse of clear skies since Monday, radiational cooling will
be strong overnight, setting up for potentially foggy mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

A stronger upper ridge forms early in the week almost directly over
us, further solidifying the springlike pattern for this week.
Working in tandem with a weak wedge boundary created from a surface
high in the North Atlantic, some instability will make its way into
the area almost daily and bring chances at showers and thunderstorms
most afternoons and evenings. Temperatures should be about normal
for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Friday...

Power outage at BCB has caused no observations to being
transmitted. With threat of low clouds/fog tonight have AMD NOT
SKED until the site is restored.

Showers exiting the piedmont this evening. A small window of
MVFR ceilings/vsbys at LYH is possible til 02z. Otherwise VFR
this evening. Low clouds/fog will develop with IFR conditions
late tonight. Conditions trend to VFR mid to late Saturday
morning. Showers will form again Saturday afternoon, mainly
southwest of a line from BLF-DAN, so nothing added to the TAFS.

Winds will generally be light with little impact to aircraft operations
through the period.

Forecast confidence high this evening, then moderate for fog/low
clouds overnight/Sat morning.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A series of weak upper level disturbances in combination with
daytime heating that will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly during the peak heating each day from
Sunday into mid week, so mainly VFR expected.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...BMG/RR
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...MBS/RAB/WP