Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/17/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Depression #1 is passing just east of NOAA buoy 41010 as it
moves N/NE away from the FL east coast. Based on the latest
reconnaissance aircraft data, TD#1 appears to be on the cusp of
becoming TS Arthur. The threat for lightning has ended but expect
isolated showers to continue to push southward and onshore Volusia
and Brevard counties for a bit longer before they diminish. The N/NE
wind flow will back to the NW overnight but this will not advect
much drier air into the area. So dewpoints will hold near 70 which
will keep temps very mild.
Sunday...Drier mid level air wrapping in behind the system will lead
to lower rain chances tomorrow, but may still see isolated showers
and storms develop into the afternoon, mainly south of a line from
Kissimmee to Melbourne. Highs tomorrow in the mid 80s along the
coast and upper 80s/around 90 degrees inland.
&&
.AVIATION...
With low level moisture remaining high and area remaining under
cyclonic circulation around periphery of TD#1, expect MVFR stratus
to develop overnight esp from MCO/TIX northward. VFR conditions then
generally expected Sunday with W/NW winds 10 knots turning onshore
at coastal terminals behind a sea breeze. Late day boundary
collisions should spark at least isolated TSRA mainly south of MCO.
&&
.MARINE...
TD#1 east of the coastal waters will lift NE and farther away from
the area with northerly winds and seas gradually decreasing. Small
Craft Advisory will be discontinued at 10 pm for the nearshore
waters and only remain in effect for the offshore Volusia and
Brevard waters overnight. Seas remain 7 ft offshore though its swell
dominated as the winds have decreased 10-15 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 84 69 90 / 20 10 0 20
MCO 71 90 71 92 / 10 10 20 20
MLB 71 85 70 89 / 20 10 10 20
VRB 70 86 69 90 / 20 20 20 20
LEE 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 70 89 70 92 / 20 10 10 20
ORL 71 90 72 91 / 20 10 20 20
FPR 69 87 69 90 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach
to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
&&
$$
Kelly/Rodriguez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
728 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020
.UPDATE...
Ridging dominates the region, this weekend. Fair weather is forecast
to continue into tomorrow. Previous shift forecast remains accurate;
therefore, no changes will be made, at this time.
- Fogleman
.SYNOPSIS...
A south to southwesterly flow aloft will maintain warmer than
average temperatures through Tuesday, while weather disturbances
moving into the region ahead of large low pressure system off the
west coast bring an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms through the first part of the upcoming week. A more
widespread heavy rainfall event is likely Tuesday night through
Wednesday night with additional precipitation along with
unsettled and cooler conditions likely going into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...A large upper level low currently
centered off the west coast will gradually move eastward over the
next several days. High level cloud-cover on the outer edges of
this system is already working into the region from the SW this
afternoon and will continue tonight, though dry conditions will
persists across the region through Sunday morning with main
increase in moisture occurring in the upper levels initially.
Upper level jet rotating around the front side of the upper
trough/low noses into the Northern Rockies by Sunday evening and
while abundant high level cloud-cover will limit destabilization,
enough should occur, particularly over the mtns of SW MT and ID to
initiate a few showers and thunderstorms that would lift
northward across the forecast area Sunday evening and overnight.
The upper level jet sets up in a S-N orientation from the Great
Basin through the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday as the upper
level low center pivots inland across CA/NV. A series of
disturbance will move north though the southerly flow aloft for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms with the most
widespread precipitation likely to develop by late Tuesday. While
there is currently low confidence in the exact timing and location
of these disturbances Monday and Tuesday, there is enough upper
level support for organized convection if greater instability can
develop, particularly if these any of these disturbances can
coincide with afternoon heating and some reduced cloud-cover late
Monday or Tuesday. Hoenisch
Wednesday through Thursday...A closed upper level area of low
pressure system will move through the region from Wednesday into
Thursday. Rainfall could easily exceed 1 inch in most areas, with
portions of Central MT and the Rocky Mountain Front getting over 2
inches of rainfall. The GFS model is quite a bit wetter, and has
some areas over North Central MT receiving over 4 inches of
rainfall. This model is quite a bit wetter than the EC model.
Additionally, the area of heavy rainfall is a bit further east
today. Overall, do expect some shifting in the exact location of
the heavy rainfall for Wed/Thu, but the overall impacts still look
on track, with the potential for flooding and high mountain
snowmelt. Cloud cover and precipitation will result in afternoon
temperatures going below normal. Additionally, it will be windy in
the Havre/Lewistown areas on Thursday as the main storm system
moves through eastern MT.
Friday and Saturday...Both models prog another storm system to
move through the region during this period. Again the GFS has
higher precipitation amounts than the EC, with rainfall amounts
possible exceeding an inch over portions of North Central MT.
Additionally, both models are a bit colder, resulting in slow
levels falling down below 6000 feet by Saturday. The lower snow
levels could be in impact for those recreating on Memorial Day
weekend. Thus, temperatures will be below normal for next Fri/Sat.
Brusda
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 606 PM MDT Sat May 16 2020 (17/00Z TAF Period)
Expect VFR conditions throughout this TAF period at all airfields,
except KHLN where conditions are expected to fall into the MVFR
range at the end of this forecast. Expect periods of mountain peak
obscuration along The Rocky Mountain Front and in parts of Southwest
Montana. ICG hazard charts are valid from 17/00Z to 17/16Z. During
this period, some upper level ICG is forecast in cloud. LLWS is
present in the KHVR, KGTF and KLWT TAFs. Expect the associated
TURBC. Areas of gusty winds up to 23KTS will impact light aircraft
near mountains and in passes. Although thunderstorm activity is not
forecast to occur within the aerodrome of our airfields during this
TAF period, mountain thunderstorms are forecast to begin by 17/21Z.
For more in depth information on ICG/TURBC and more, please, see:
aviationweather.gov/icing
aviationweather.gov/turbulence
- Fogleman
NOTE: Amendments not scheduled for Ennis (KEKS) due to ongoing
runway closure.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 75 49 74 / 0 20 20 40
CTB 44 73 47 71 / 10 20 20 40
HLN 44 75 49 75 / 0 30 40 50
BZN 42 75 46 78 / 0 20 30 20
WYS 33 67 40 68 / 0 20 20 10
DLN 43 71 46 72 / 0 20 40 40
HVR 49 80 51 80 / 0 10 10 30
LWT 44 73 49 77 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls