Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/07/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
659 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/
Occasional light rain will continue for the next few hours
generally along the I-20 corridor as a weak shortwave passes
overhead. Rainfall amounts will range from only a trace to a few
hundredths of an inch. Precipitation should exit to the east by
midnight. Patchy fog and drizzle will be a good possibility
overnight for areas east of I-35 where temperature/dewpoint
spreads will approach zero by daybreak Tuesday. There is a chance
that fog may develop farther west where this afternoon`s high
temperatures remained a few degrees below forecast values, so
will need monitor T/Td trends area-wide later this evening and
overnight. Otherwise a mix of low and mid level clouds is expected
with low temperatures in the lower and mid 60s.
For Tuesday, the combination of an upper ridge, veered surface
winds and the return of sunshine will allow afternoon temperatures
to soar into the 80s.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 307 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2020/
/Tuesday Night onward/
The middle portion of the week will feature warm and dry weather
as upper-level ridging persists over the region. The upper-level
ridge will be aided by compressional, downslope warming from
modest southwesterly flow at the surface. Highs on Wednesday may
approach 90 F in parts of the CWA, which is about 15 degrees above
normal for early April. Right now, the records of 93 F at both
DFW and Waco appear safe, but we could get close. Should we hit 90
F, it would be the first 90-degree day at DFW since October 10,
and the first at Waco since October 19.
The warm weather will be short-lived however, as a strong cold
front is poised to move through on Thursday. The cold front should
hit our northwestern counties a little after midnight Thursday,
reach the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area during the early
morning hours, and the Killeen/Temple/Waco area by late morning.
Rain chances will increase behind the frontal passage as
southwesterly flow in the mid levels of the troposphere transports
warm, moist Pacific air up and over the shallow continental polar
air mass. Since temperatures will be in the 60s and dewpoints in
the 40s/50s, severe weather is not expected. Rain rates don`t look
to be terribly impressive either. Just more, dreary, cool rain.
For the end of the week and the weekend, the forecast gets quite
uncertain. Significant disagreement exists between the ECMWF and
GFS with regards to the major synoptic-level details. As an aside,
there are theories that model performance may actually be
suffering a bit due to a sharp decrease in aircraft observations.
Not tremendously, but perhaps in a measurable amount. Again, this
is just a theory. This is potentially relevant right now however,
as the key synoptic feature that will impact us later this week,
an upper-level low off the coast of California, has not yet moved
into the U.S. upper-air network. The good news is that it should
move onshore during the next 24 hours, which should help with
predictability over the next day or two. That said, the largest
camp of model solutions seems to be that which is supported by the
deterministic ECMWF and the majority of the GFS Ensemble Forecast
System members. This solution calls for a slower eastward
translation of the upper-level low, with this low also remaining
closed off. This is opposed to the deterministic GFS which opens
up the low and moves it through the Southern Plains as early as
Friday. It`s also worth noting that the GFS tends to have a bias
in quickly opening and moving out closed upper-level lows. With
all of this being considered, opted to lean closer to the ECMWF
solution.
What this means for us during the later parts of the week is
probably a drier Friday/early Saturday, with precipitation chances
increasing late Saturday and into Sunday morning. Rain chances
would decrease Sunday afternoon as the upper-level low moves off
to our east. Still, because of the larger than usual uncertainty,
opted to keep chance PoPs in the forecast from Friday through
Saturday night. These PoPs will probably be able to be refined in
the coming days however, as confidence in the forecast increases.
With respect to the severe weather potential, temperatures look to
be a little below normal into the weekend. Additionally, dewpoints
will be depressed following Thursday`s cold front passage. These
two factors should keep instability on the lower side, minimizing
the severe weather potential.
Godwin
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
Light precipitation associated with a weak disturbance aloft will
continue periodically in the DFW Metroplex for the next few hours.
This is allowing a scattered stratus layer to occasionally produce
MVFR cigs. Conditions will improve for a brief period later this
evening as light rain exits to the east, but MVFR will likely
return after 06Z as gulf moisture surges northward across the
area. Conditions will return to VFR by midday Tuesday and
continue through the end of the forecast period.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 87 66 89 60 / 10 10 0 10 20
Waco 66 85 68 89 65 / 20 10 0 10 20
Paris 64 82 65 85 59 / 30 20 0 10 20
Denton 64 86 63 88 58 / 10 10 0 10 20
McKinney 63 86 65 88 59 / 20 10 0 10 20
Dallas 66 87 67 89 60 / 10 10 0 10 20
Terrell 64 84 66 88 61 / 20 10 0 10 20
Corsicana 66 85 68 87 65 / 20 20 0 10 20
Temple 64 86 68 88 65 / 10 20 0 10 20
Mineral Wells 60 88 63 88 58 / 10 10 0 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
30/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
736 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020
.UPDATE...
The forecast remains on track through the period with little to no
changes made. One minor change was adding in some showers and
lightning over parts of southwest Montana this evening. -TP
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will move through the region tonight, while another
mild day is expected in many areas on Tuesday. A weak cold front
slides into North Central MT Tuesday night, producing a few light
snow showers. Expect drier conditions on Thursday, while a
stronger cold front, along with the potential for widespread rain
and snow moves into the region this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 535 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020 (07/00Z TAF Period)
Expect VFR conditions to prevail for most of our airfields, with the
exception of KWYS which will continue to fluctuate between VFR and
MVFR condition through tomorrow morning. Mountain obscurations are
forecast, especially in the southwest. Expect some aircraft icing
impacts. LLWS conditions are forecast overnight tonight for KLWT.
Expect the associated turbulence. -TP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2020/
Tonight through Friday...A few light showers/isolated
thunderstorms will move through the region this evening, as an
upper level disturbance exits the area. On Tuesday, expect a mild
day before the next weak cold front slides southward into North
Central MT on Tuesday night. Some upslope light snow could develop
along the front range of the Rockies and across Central MT.
Overall, snow accumulations will generally remain under an inch
with this system. Slightly cooler conditions will prevail on
Wednesday behind the front, while warmer temperatures move back
into the region on Thursday, as shortwave ridging resides over the
region. On Friday, the flow aloft will start to shift to the
northwest, as the next main storm system/showers starts to
approach the region by late in the day. Brusda
Previous 4 AM Extended discussion...
Although there remain differences in timing, the longer range
model solutions are indicating the western ridge will collapse as
a stronger weather system drops through western Canada toward the
Northern Rockies. Confidence is moving higher that temperatures
will fall back below average by Saturday, along with a period of
rain changing to snow. Timing will help influence temperatures and
snow accumulations, but early indications support 6-12 inches for
the higher elevations and 1-3 inches for the North-central
plains. Expect minor impacts to travel for next weekend, but with
potentially moderate to high impacts on newborn livestock due to
the wet and colder conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 34 56 25 45 / 0 0 50 0
CTB 32 50 23 42 / 0 0 50 0
HLN 34 58 27 52 / 0 0 10 0
BZN 31 59 29 52 / 20 0 0 0
WYS 26 46 20 49 / 40 10 0 0
DLN 31 55 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 30 54 25 43 / 0 0 50 0
LWT 30 54 22 40 / 0 0 40 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls