Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/18/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
824 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper-level disturbances will track into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys over the next few days, keeping the
weather unsettled through late week. Temperatures will moderate
and will be well above normal by Friday before a cold front
crosses the area this weekend bringing temperatures back to near
normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...
Rain has entirely ceased for the evening, but broken cloud cover
remains, mostly west of the mountains, but some continues to pour
over the Blue Ridge. High pressure is moving over the Ohio Valley
on its way towards Pennsylvania and southern New England by
Wednesday afternoon. This will temporarily cause some clearing east
of the Blue Ridge, before wedging us in once the dominant flow
becomes staunchly east with the high to our north. Wednesday will be
quite cloudy with some chance at showers in the afternoon and
evening approaching from the southwest as a warm front begins to
float north from the southern plains/MS Valley.
Adjusted the overnight lows up a couple degrees because of the
stubborn cloud cover as well as forecast soundings reflecting a
reduced period of clearing, which will restrict the radiational
cooling effect. No major adjustments for the next 24 hours. Lows
will still generally be in the 30s/40s. Wednesday will be slightly
cooler than Tuesday, with high pressure to our north potentially
developing a weak wedge, even though the new air mass isn`t
strikingly cooler. Highs in the 50s for most of the region, perhaps
stretching into the 60s in the NC Piedmont or Southside VA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...
Wednesday night, a warm front from an associated low pressure system
to our west will start to work its way northward. As it presses
northward, look for rain chances to increase as moisture starts to
drive in behind it. For now, the greatest coverage in rainfall still
looks to remain to our northwest where low level winds will be the
strongest. Here in our area, the greatest coverage will occur west
of the Blue Ridge, while areas out in the Piedmont will have far
less organized rainfall.
For Thursday, SW flow dominates the region bringing in an influx of
moisture, as well as warmer air. Despite the likely cloud cover,
temperatures are going to warm substantially with most climbing to
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Rain coverage decreases for the day
Thursday, though with such abundant moisture and present
instability, a few showers and even a storm or two will be possible,
though primarily in the west. Instability decreases for Thursday
night while isolated showers will still be possible. Temperature
wise, lows going into Friday morning are going to be very warm with
many not even dropping below 60 degrees.
Friday will start mostly dry, but with ever present stout SW flow
over the region. Highs are still on track for areas east to climb to
80 degrees while others top in the 70s. A cold front arrives late
Friday, into Friday night. Again, I think this will be an
opportunity for a few storms as instability will again increase
during the afternoon Friday. Models agree that the front looks to
weaken as it crosses the mountains, meaning the heaviest rainfall
will occur to the west. Models remain unsettled with the speed in
which the front exits Friday night, but regardeless, it looks as
though for now most rain will be gone by sunrise Saturday.
High pressure builds in for Saturday as cooler air is ushered in.
While this will be a cooler airmass, it will mainly just work to
bring us back to average. For now, sticking with a fair amount of
clouds to hang with us for Saturday. Downsloping as well as dry air
arrival will start to finally erode clouds late Saturday.
Just an FYI: records still don`t look to be set with Friday`s
warmth, at least in regards to daily high temps. However, with warm
conditions Thursday night into Friday, it is possible that record
warm lows will be set.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...
Saturday night`s lows will be some of the coolest weather we will
have for the coming week. This cool weather won`t be hanging around
for long though as we enter a gradual warming trend starting next
work week.
High pressure remains in place for the remainder of the weekend
keeping us dry. The next rain maker will arrive late Sunday night
into early Monday AM with moisture streaming out from a disturbance
passing to our south. That said, rainfall from this looks meager.
The next real rain maker will come with a low pressure system that
will develop over the central U.S. and move eastward. With it being
so far out, models have some serious differences in track of this
low. Regardless, it looks like we should get some good rainfall from
it by late Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure moves its way north of the area, but won`t provide
much break in cloud cover. Tuesday night will see largely MVFR
conditions with northwesterly winds early, but IFR cigs aren`t out
of the question closer to Wednesday morning, once some wedging
begins as a result of the high getting situated to the north and
creating some easterlies.
More MVFR throughout Wednesday, as winds veer a little more,
becoming southeasterly to easterly and a cloud deck forms from CAD
and upslope effects.
Winds will generally be light with litte impact to aircraft
operations.
Confidence in CIGs is low through the entire period. Moderate
for VSBYS and high for winds.
.Extended Aviation Discussion...
The pattern of quick arriving and exiting systems continues
this week. There will be smaller windows of VFR with more threat
of sub-VFR through Friday, especially in the mountains.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG/PC
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...RR
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...BMG/VFJ/WP