Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/04/20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 627 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

Aloft: Low-amplitude W-WNW flow was over the NEB/KS per aircraft
wind data and RAP tropopause animations. A wk shrtwv trof was over
MT and sliding SE. This trof will rapidly cross SD/NEB this eve
followed by slightly anticyclonic WNW flow into tomorrow.

Surface: Wk 1014 mb high pres was along the KS/OK stateline. This
high will be squeezed by a wk low that will form near YKN and
then move into IL tonight. A developing cool front associated with
this low will cross the CWA this eve. Anticyclogenesis will then
occur over the Cntrl Plns tomorrow with return flow developing in
tandem with low pres moving acrs Srn Canada.

Rest of this afternoon: Mostly sunny...warm and breezy. Highs in
the low-mid 60s will occur 4-5 PM.

Tonight: Mostly clear. There will be a few clds around early that
could result in some sprinkles here and there. After 10 PM...
clear. Lows within a cpl degs of 30F.

Wed: Sunny. Becoming breezy after 18Z...espcly N and W of HSI with
G25-30 kt will be common.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

Pattern: No change in the main theme since mid Nov. Lots of W-E
flow off the Pac. Low amplitude will occasionally increase to
moderate amplitude.

Aloft: The longwaves will amplify a bit Thu-Sat...and then
deamplify heading into early next week. The flow over NEB/KS will
be NW Thu...behind a deepening shrtwv trof moving into the Ern
USA. The moderate-amplitude ridge over the Wrn USA will cont E and
crest over the Plns Fri eve. Behind it...WSW flow will prevail
Sat-Sun. A shrtwv trof that originates off CA will move thru the
Desert SW and cross the Cntrl/Srn Plns Mon AM. Zonal flow will
occur in its wake Tue.

Surface: 1030 mb high pres will emerge onto the Plns Thu and cont
to strengthen as it gradually shifts into the MS Vly Fri and into
the SE USA this wknd. As the high moves away...breezy/very warm
return flow will remain over NEB/KS until a Pac cool front moves
thru Sun night. Nrn Plns high pres will then build in Mon- Tue.

Temps: Way warmer than normal with a warming trend thru
Sun...then temps return back to near normal Mon-Tue. Sat-Sun cont
to trend warmer and we`re now looking at 2 days with widespread
low-mid 70s.

Precip: Dry until the frontal passage Sun night. Rain appears
likely Sun night into Mon. The ptype routine has some snow N and W
of the Tri-Cities...but that is based purely on sfc temps and our
lows are probably too chilly. Am expecting this to be all rain.
Let the NBM thunder probs dictate its inclusion. So there is now a
slight chance of thunder Sun eve. Both the GFS and EC have 50F
dwpts surging into the SE CWA to meet the front. That should
create sufficient/weak instability to support some thunder.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 626 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the period with
clear skies the vast majority of the time, although these first
few hours will feature a fairly solid mid-level cloud deck
(ceiling around 10K ft.) along with the possibility of a few brief
sprinkles. That leaves winds as the main aviation issue, both at
the surface and aloft, as much of tonight will likely feature at
least marginal low level wind shear (LLWS). Read on for more
wind-specific details...

Surface winds:
Generally speaking, most of the night and Wednesday morning will
feature a westerly to west-northwesterly breeze sustained in the
8-12KT range, although occasional gusts to 20+KT cannot be ruled
out (especially these first few hours). A more notable occurs late
morning into the afternoon, as direction transitions to
southwesterly sustained generally 14-18KT/gusts 19-25KT, before
subsiding a bit by late afternoon.

LLWS:
Have maintained the inherited mention of LLWS overnight, and
extended it by 1 hour, now focusing 03-10Z. In, short, winds
within roughly the lowest 1K ft. above the surface will increase
to around 40KT from the northwest, promoting generally 30-35KT of
overall- shear magnitude between the surface and this level.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

Near critical RH/winds this afternoon in some spots.

Critical RH/winds are expected Wed afternoon. So a RFW has been
posted for Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Harlan/Phillips counties. Outside
of the warning...near critical.

Thu will be another day of critical or near-critical RH/wind.

Fri and Sat will be windy...but low-lvl moisture should come up
just enough to keep RH`s above 30%.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for NEZ060-072-
     082-083.

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for KSZ005.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
FIRE WEATHER...Kelley