Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/24/20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 601 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Snow has ended across much of the area, and where light snow
lingers, it is expected to end in the next hour or two. Have
allowed the remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory to expire on
time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Aloft: Moderately-amplified flow was over the CONUS per RAP
tropopause analyses and aircraft wind data. A fairly deep/narrow
troff extended from the Can Prairies to LA with a newly-developed
low over Ern KS. A ridge was progressing thru the Wrn USA. The KS
low will E into the OH Vly thru tomorrow. NNW flow over NEB/KS
will become NW turn more anticyclonic.

Surface: Wk 1014 mb low pres was near MCI and moving SE away from
the rgn. 1033 mb high pres was over ONT. A piece of this high
will break off and expand N-S acrs the Plns from ND-OK tonight and
Fri.

Rest of this afternoon: Skies will remain cldy over most of the
CWA as a shield of snow conts over S-cntrl NEB. The Wrn and Srn
fringes of the precip shield were falling as -RA. Some peeks of
sun will be psbl along the Wrn border of the CWA. This precip
shield will cont to drop S along with the newly-formed upr low. So
precip will gradually decrease in intensity and/or end...espcly N
of I-80.

N-NNW winds will cont to gust 20-30 kt.

The Winter Wx Advy will expire at 00Z and given that main roads
are primarily wet.

Tonight: Whatever -RA/-SN is over the CWA (primarily over the SE
1/3 of the CWA) will quickly come to an end early this eve. Low
clds will remain over the majority of the CWA (along and E of Hwy
183). W of Hwy 183 skies will be more variable... and partly-
mostly cldy.

Diminishing winds.

With the extensive cld cover...did not go as cold as NBM. Kept
lows toward the higher end of the guidance spread.

Fri: Finally a breather! This will be the 1st day of at least 4
without any wintry precip.

Multi-model low-level RH progs and vertical cross sections
suggest much of the day will remain cldy for most of the CWA.
After 18Z we should see the back edge of the clds move E into the
CWA...as low-lvl winds back from NW to W and the thermal trof gets
shoved E and weak WAA develops. Mdl consensus brings the clearing
line up to Hwy 183 by 21Z and Hwy 281 by 00Z. So locations E of
Hwy 281 will stay cldy all day.

Extensive cloudiness will keep temps fairly cold tomorrow. From
GRI N and E...temps will not get out of the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Aloft: The wk shrtwv trof that will be moving thru the Wrn USA
tomorrow will cont E and cross NEB/KS Sat-Sun. A shrtwv ridge will
move thru Mon behind that trof. The global mdls cont to fcst the
next Wrn USA shrtwv trof to head into the Srn Plns. There conts to
be considerable uncertainty/mdl spread with its evolution. The EC
runs cont to be the most aggressive...closing off a low.
Meanwhile...the GFS runs have a decent trof but it remains open
and more progressive. There is so much spread in the EC ensemble
that the mean is not very supportive of the deterministic runs. So
the fcst is highly uncertain next Tue-Wed.

The 12Z EC run is the first one in the last svrl days that came in
not closing off a 500 mb low and keeping the trof open. That has
substantially cut its QPF.

Surface: High pres will drift E of the rgn Sat...with a lee trof
moving E into cntrl NEB/KS. That trof will dissipate Sun with a
new lee trof forming in the lee of the Rckys. A wk cool front will
be advancing thru the Wrn USA (associated with the shrtwv trof).
This front will cross the CWA Mon night while wk low pres forms
over the Srn Plns. This low will stay well S of the CWA Tue-Wed.

Temps: Overall...temps will average near normal Sat-Thu. Sun
should be the warmest day.

Precip: With the EC now coming into agreement with the past svrl
GFS runs...precip is looking pretty meager. In fact...most of
these time periods will be dry. There could be some trace amts of
precip Sat night with that trof moving thru. A touch of -RA/-SN is
psbl Mon night into Tue. Multi-model QPF is less than 0.10". So
it will be a light/minor event for area that see precip. Best
chance will be S of I-80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 515 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Not an easy forecast tonight as ceilings vary across the area.
Current thinking is that GRI will be more uniform in cloud
coverage with ceilings around 1k and will lower this evening to
IFR. EAR ceilings maybe VRB tonight as the clearing line is near
Gothenburg. For the EAR TAF have kept ceilings a little higher and
drop them to IFR after midnight. Thinking that EAR could SCT out
around mid-day. Thinking VIS will be VFR, but will vary this
evening as a little BLSN could impact the TAF sites. Winds
expected to taper down this evening.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Billings Wright
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Beda