Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 12/05/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

 613 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

Overall, tranquil weather can be expected through this weekend
with a warming trend. Highs will be around 40 to 45 through
Saturday and then close to 50 Sunday and Monday. An abundance of
clouds will prevail over Michigan into northern Indiana through
Thursday with skies trying to clear out Friday afternoon into
Saturday. Rain chances will be increasing early next week ahead of
a very strong cold front that will bring snow and bitterly cold
temperatures by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

Northwest winds with lake delta T values of 12C to 14C were
helping to support some light snowshowers over Lower Michigan
north of Interstate 94. Aircraft soundings indicated inversion
heights were quite low and should help to keep activity light.
Flurries may drift into Branch, Hillsdale and into the Wauseon
areas, but accumulations are not expected. Otherwise, an abundance
of cloud cover will persist from Lower Michigan into northern
Indiana and northwest Ohio should help keep lows above normal
tonight. Highs Thursday should reach the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

Tranquil weather is ahead as a high pressure system moves into
the region Friday. The subsidence associated with the high will
help skies clear Friday and then will allow lows to drop well
down into the 20s by Saturday morning. Temperatures will stay
reasonably mild through the weekend, and should reach close to
50 Sunday and Monday. After the mild weather Monday, another
strong cold front is expected to move across the forecast area
Tuesday. Rain from the system will change to snow Tuesday as cold
air pours into the region. An active lake effect snow event
appears will be unfolding for Tuesday through Tuesday night as
delta T values rise to around or top 25C. Concern for bands of
snow to develop if the frontogenetic zone sets over over the
forecast area. After collaboration with surrounding offices,
raised snow chances Tuesday and went colder Tuesday night. Cut the
model blend temperatures significantly to come in line with the
GFS which appears on track with the thermal fields. These cold
temperatures match bitterly cold analogs and are similar to the
very cold event last month.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

Cigs have went well into VFR range and upstream trends support
going VFR for the forecast period as drier air continues to slowly
filter in with show eventually becoming more SW pushing lake
effect clouds out of the area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Fisher


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