Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 11/30/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
949 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019
.UPDATE...
This update accounts for the warm front`s position and associated
T/Td/Visibility trends following its passage.
The warm front has nearly cleared the forecast area, moving
through our remaining northwestern counties as of 930pm.
Temperatures and dewpoints continue to climb area-wide, with
readings in the mid 70s now in place across parts of Central
Texas. While this would otherwise be a favorable setup for warm
sector surface-based convection, very strong warm advection in the
850-700mb layer has sharply strengthened a capping inversion, as
noted by the 00z FWD sounding and more recent AMDAR soundings.
This appears to be inhibiting any convective development at this
time, and activity over the next several hours may be confined to
elevated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms rooted above the
inversion in the 600-700mb layer.
Primary convective chances will still be along the upstream cold
front as it moves into the forecast area around 2-3am. Convection
should develop southwestward along the boundary as it advances
through the forecast area through the early morning hours. Some
hail will be possible with more robust updrafts during this time
period due to steep lapse rates and strong effective shear. The
wind/tornado potential should be substantially lessened due to
the aformentioned lack of surface based instability and meager
lapse rates through the lowest 2-3km. Only a sudden rapid erosion
of the cap would increase the potential for the latter threats,
which appears unlikely at this time.
Otherwise, the potential for dense fog will generally cease now
that the warm front is moving out of the area, as attendant
stratus lifts a few hundred feet of the ground. As a result, the
Dense Fog Advisory across our southwest has been allowed to
expire. Visibility should continue improving gradually overnight.
-Stalley
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 710 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019/
/00Z TAFs/
LIFR conditions are expected to continue over the next few hours
at all TAF sites, eventually lifting to IFR near 04Z-06Z. Dense
fog at ACT will prevail for the next few hours until strong
southerly winds settle in at approximately 04Z tonight. A warm
front is still slowly making its way into North and Central Texas,
causing dew points and temperatures to rise and moistening low
levels. Scattered showers will stick around overnight, but with
increasing instability, scattered thunderstorms will be possible
after approximately 10Z to 11Z. Thunder may be possible before
10Z, but there wasn`t enough confidence to include in the TAFs for
now. However, we`ll continue to re-evaluate the potential over
the next few hours.
The best chances for showers/thunderstorms area-wide arrive with
the approaching cold front shortly before sunrise. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to come to an end around 15Z for D10
and 17Z for ACT as a thin line of storms moves southeastward with
the front. VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the TAF
period as the front ushers in dry, stable air. Strong northwest
winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will settle
into North Texas shortly after frontal passage. D10 could see
some crosswind impacts through tomorrow evening before winds
decrease near sunset.
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 143 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019/
/Saturday Night Through Next Week/
We will end this holiday weekend with such a nice but rather cool
day. Sunday morning low temps will be in the upper 30s to low 40s
and afternoon highs at around or just below normal values for
December 1st; mid-to-upper 50s to near 60 degrees in Central TX.
Surface high pressure will set up to our west and move over our
region Monday morning. This, along with clear skies, will allow
for efficient radiational cooling. Low temperatures will drop
into the 30s across all North and Central TX, making it the
coldest morning of the week. Furthermore, if surface winds go calm
(as anticipated) in our western/northwestern counties, there is a
good chance that some spots will dip into the 20s. Afternoon
temps will stay once again in the near normal range (50s to low
60s range). The surface high pressure will move from west to east
during the day, with south flow returning Monday evening.
The good news is that most of the week will be dry, with a
progressive ridge in the upper levels and a few fronts moving over
us every couple of days. The first one will be on Tuesday, but
our environment wont have enough moisture for any precipitation
to occur. The only feature we will see from this weak front is
the wind shift to the north late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Our
afternoon temperatures will be above normal, 60s in most areas and
70s in Central TX. This front wont advect much cold air either,
so our temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to the previous
day and just a degree or two warmer on Thursday.
Most of the model guidance continues to be in relatively good
agreement bringing our next storm system and associated cold
front by late Thursday or Friday morning. By that time, we will
have enough deep Gulf moisture for showers and isolated
thunderstorms to develop. For now we kept low PoPs Thursday
afternoon/evening mainly along the Red River and east of the I-35
corridor. For now, this is where the best lift and moisture
content appears to be. Rain chances will likely continue through
the day on Friday before exiting our region right before next
weekend starts.
Sanchez
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1227 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2019/
/Through Saturday Afternoon/
The warm front was finally on the move across the southeast zones
late this morning as evident by the rising temperatures and
dewpoints in the 60s. We expect the front to continue moving
northwest through the afternoon with slowly improving visibility.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
the afternoon due to increasing large scale upward vertical
motion associated with the energy ejecting out of the Desert
Southwest. A lack of surface based instability and extensive cloud
cover should keep most of the thunderstorms isolated through the
evening with better chances arriving with the cold front toward
daybreak Saturday. There will be a quick shot (a couple hour
window) for storms associated with the front, followed by
decreasing clouds. A few of these storms could become strong to
marginally severe with hail and gusty winds. The remainder of
Saturday be partly to mostly sunny and breezy with a west to
northwest wind in the 15 to 25 mph range.
Temperatures tonight will be very mild for late fall with lows
generally in the 60s. Saturday will also be mild due to increasing
sun and some adiabatic warming with highs from the mid 60s to the
upper 70s.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 71 42 58 36 / 60 30 0 0 0
Waco 60 75 42 60 36 / 40 60 0 0 0
Paris 60 70 40 53 34 / 80 80 0 0 0
Denton 53 69 39 57 34 / 50 10 0 0 0
McKinney 61 70 40 56 34 / 80 40 0 0 0
Dallas 61 71 42 58 37 / 70 40 0 0 0
Terrell 64 73 41 58 35 / 70 80 0 0 0
Corsicana 65 73 43 57 37 / 50 70 0 0 0
Temple 60 76 43 61 37 / 30 50 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 57 67 37 56 31 / 30 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
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