Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 11/12/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019
.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/
Concerns and challenges: Timing the improvement of current MVFR
to VFR cigs later this evening N-NW wind speeds and gusts, and
any brief -PL occurring or mixing with -RA across the Waco area
through 03z. With moisture along the frontal inversion through
03z, also concerns for some minimal icing on commercial aircraft
-- especially at DFW/DAL.
A mid level impulse across NW OK and the TX/OK Panhandles will
continue to move quickly southeast tonight across North and
Central TX and help draw in drier air in the lower-mid levels by
06z Tuesday. Until then, MVFR cigs will slowly rise into VFR late
this evening and overnight. Some very light precipitation ahead
of this impulse will continue across Central TX and the Waco area
through 03z, before gradually shifting southeast of the airport.
May see -PL occasionally mix in with -RA at Waco despite this
area likely remaining just above freezing through 03z. As for
commercial aircraft at DFW Metro airports, some minor icing issues
will be possible until the lower level moisture based around
850mb dries out with increasing isentropic downglide and drier air
arriving later this evening.
As expected, a very strong barrier jet of 35-40 knots still
continues as of 00z across much of the region, but should continue
to lessen very gradually during the overnight hours into early
Tuesday morning. N-NW winds 18-23 knots with occasional gusts to
30 knots will continue this evening, before diminishing to 10-15
knots after 12z Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, speeds will
diminish below 10 knots as surface high pressure builds in.
05/
&&
.DISCUSSION... /Issued 221 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/
.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night and Beyond/
Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected at the start of
the period as the axis of a cold arctic high pressure ridge will
be in place across North and Central Texas. Dense airmasses such
as this one don`t typically radiate as well as our usual
continental airmass, but widespread temperatures in the 20s can
still be expected Tuesday night. The record low of 21 at DFW for
Wednesday morning may be difficult to attain, but the 26 degree
record at Waco has a good possibility of being broken. Either
way, it is important that folks remember to protect people, pets
pipes, and plants as we will all be affected by the deep freeze.
On Wednesday, the ridge axis will move southeast into the Gulf
Coast region, which will shift the winds around to the south or
southwest. This combined with decent insolation will bring warmer
conditions to the region with Wednesday afternoon highs climbing
into the 50s.
As we get into Wednesday night, we will watch a shortwave trough
drop southeast through the Plains while a southern branch low
simultaneously moves east across South Texas. The northern system
will force a weak cold front south through the area Wednesday
night/Thursday morning, reversing the warming trend and keeping
temperatures below normal for the mid to late week period. Lows
near or just below freezing are expected across the northwest
third of the region both Wednesday night and Thursday night with
mainly mid 30s expected elsewhere. There is a low chance of
precipitation Wednesday night across Central Texas associated with
the southern stream upper low, but temperatures would be above
freezing and hence precip in liquid form should any occur.
A shortwave ridge will then work its way east across Texas late
Thursday through Sunday. Warmer weather and dry conditions will be
the result from Friday through the weekend with lows in the
mid/upper 30s and highs near 60. However, climatological normals
are lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s, so despite the warm-up
we will still remain below seasonal norms.
Another quick shot of rain will occur about a week from now as
both the operational GFS and ECMWF are surprisingly consistent
with a fast-moving shortwave traversing the region. At this time
it looks looks like any convection will be weak and rainfall
amounts insignificant.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 221 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/
/Tuesday Night and Beyond/
Mostly clear skies and light winds are expected at the start of
the period as the axis of a cold arctic high pressure ridge will
be in place across North and Central Texas. Dense airmasses such
as this one don`t typically radiate as well as our usual
continental airmass, but widespread temperatures in the 20s can
still be expected Tuesday night. The record low of 21 at DFW for
Wednesday morning may be difficult to attain, but the 26 degree
record at Waco has a good possibility of being broken. Either
way, it is important that folks remember to protect people, pets
pipes, and plants as we will all be affected by the deep freeze.
On Wednesday, the ridge axis will move southeast into the Gulf
Coast region, which will shift the winds around to the south or
southwest. This combined with decent insolation will bring warmer
conditions to the region with Wednesday afternoon highs climbing
into the 50s.
As we get into Wednesday night, we will watch a shortwave trough
drop southeast through the Plains while a southern branch low
simultaneously moves east across South Texas. The northern system
will force a weak cold front south through the area Wednesday
night/Thursday morning, reversing the warming trend and keeping
temperatures below normal for the mid to late week period. Lows
near or just below freezing are expected across the northwest
third of the region both Wednesday night and Thursday night with
mainly mid 30s expected elsewhere. There is a low chance of
precipitation Wednesday night across Central Texas associated with
the southern stream upper low, but temperatures would be above
freezing and hence precip in liquid form should any occur.
A shortwave ridge will then work its way east across Texas late
Thursday through Sunday. Warmer weather and dry conditions will be
the result from Friday through the weekend with lows in the
mid/upper 30s and highs near 60. However, climatological normals
are lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s, so despite the warm-up
we will still remain below seasonal norms.
Another quick shot of rain will occur about a week from now as
both the operational GFS and ECMWF are surprisingly consistent
with a fast-moving shortwave traversing the region. At this time
it looks looks like any convection will be weak and rainfall
amounts insignificant.
30
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1216 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/
/This Afternoon through Tuesday Afternoon/
The arctic cold front is right on schedule late this morning with
FROPA at all but the southeast quarter of the forecast area.
Impressive winds behind the front with some gusts in excess of 50
mph. The cold air advection is also impressive with temperatures
15 to 20 degree colder than they were at sunrise. Precipitation
associated with the front has been light with mainly drizzle and
occasional light rain. Thus far, all temperatures have been above
freezing, but some of the northwest zones are already in the mid
30s. There is some potential for some brief light freezing drizzle
this afternoon across the northwest zones before the precip ends,
but impacts will likely be negligible due to evaporation/sublimation.
There will also be potential for some patchy light sleet this
afternoon and evening as the depth of the cold air increases,
especially south of the I-20 corridor. Any sleet that falls this
afternoon should be light and fall where surface temperatures are
above freezing, so no accumulations or impacts are anticipated.
There is still a slightly better chance for some light sleet
across Central Texas this evening as weak shortwave energy
translates across the region. Impacts across the CWA are expected
to be negligible, but some light accumulations are possible just
south of the forecast area.
Clouds and precipitation will end from north to south through the
evening, but winds will remain strong and gusty overnight, so we
will leave the Wind Advisory in place for all of North and Central
Texas until 6 AM Tuesday. Temperatures tonight will range from
the upper teens in the northwest to the upper 20s in the south.
Wind chill readings will be in the single digits and teens.
Arctic high pressure will settle over the Central and Southern
Plains Tuesday, resulting in a sunny but very cool day with highs
in the 40s. Breezy north winds are expected Tuesday morning with
a gradual decrease during the afternoon.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 24 43 26 53 36 / 5 0 0 0 5
Waco 26 44 24 53 38 / 30 0 0 0 10
Paris 23 40 23 50 31 / 20 0 0 0 5
Denton 22 42 23 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 5
McKinney 23 42 23 51 33 / 5 0 0 0 5
Dallas 25 43 27 53 36 / 5 0 0 0 5
Terrell 24 44 23 52 34 / 10 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 25 43 25 52 36 / 30 0 0 0 10
Temple 26 44 24 52 38 / 40 0 0 0 20
Mineral Wells 20 40 22 55 32 / 5 0 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
05/08