Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 10/19/19

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Reno NV

 125 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Pleasant weather today will yield to gusty winds, localized fire
weather concerns, and a few showers Saturday. Gusty winds could
cause issues for high profile vehicles, mainly north of I-80, and
turbulence for aircraft. After Saturday, high pressure off of the
Pacific Coast will bring light winds and near normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

No significant changes were made to the forecast this cycle.

Light winds today and near average temperatures are making for a
pleasant afternoon today. However, a wave pushing through the
Pacific Northwest will bring gusty winds on Saturday.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for northern Washoe County from near
Gerlach to the Oregon border and Surprise Valley in California.
There, gusts could reach 50 mph, especially in wind prone
locations. The strongest winds will be generally north of I-80,
with gusts 40-50 mph. But, winds will be gusty area-wide. This
won`t be ideal for Halloween decorations or raking leaves, so plan
accordingly. Lake Wind Advisories were issued for Lake Tahoe and
Pyramid Lake on Saturday, with rough lake waters expected. High
profile vehicles traveling along NV 447 and Highway 395 should
prepare for possible crosswind issues. Turbulence for aircraft
should also be expected, see the Aviation section for more
details. There will be a chance for some showers, but this will
mostly be confined to far northern Nevada and northeast
California.

After Saturday, high pressure off of the West Coast will prevail.
Daytime temperatures will warm to near or slightly above average.
Clear skies and dry conditions will allow for cool overnight
lows, definitely fall-like. Winds will be light, with no
precipitation expected for next week. There are some signals
showing this pattern could persist through the end of the month.
-Cassie


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions today with light winds, though some passing clouds
have been obscuring mountain tops.

Greatest concern in the forecast will be increasing W-NW winds
on Saturday as a 140 kt jet noses into northern Nevada. We will
begin to see winds pick up across ridgelines Saturday morning,
with peak winds anticipated by midday. Sierra ridge gusts could
reach 100 mph. Mountain valleys, including KTRK, KTRK, and KMMH
will begin to see wind gusts between 15-17z, with lower valley
locations, such as KRNO and KCXP increasing an hour or two later.
Peak valley gusts north of US-50 could reach 35-40 kts, with
locally stronger winds closer to the Oregon border. Farther south,
speeds will peak around 25-30 kts.

Wind shear is likely, especially earlier Saturday as winds
increase aloft, but remain lighter in valley locations. Otherwise,
speed shear will be possible with terrain channeling winds more
S-SW and winds above the surface out of the W-NW. Turbulence with
potential mountain wave activity are also expected on Saturday.

A few light showers are possible near the Oregon border, with
terrain obscuration likely, otherwise, just anticipate VFR clouds
elsewhere.

Flying conditions will be much improved come Sunday. -Dawn

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Main change today was to drop the Fire Weather Watch in west-
central Nevada for Saturday. Relatively strong gusty winds are
still expected across much of the region, however, in areas where
gusty winds would exceed critical fire weather thresholds,
humidities are going to be much higher. Even using a sliding scale
for thresholds in areas where stronger gusts of 45 mph are
forecast, minimum humidities are expected to stay above about 25%.

It`s still possible some areas could see isolated critical fire
weather conditions on Saturday, but humidities are expected rise
rapidly as stronger winds move into the region, likely limiting
the duration of those conditions. The most likely areas to see
some near critical conditions are in the lower valleys from Carson
City east to around Fallon. But considering the expected
localized nature of these conditions, a a Red Flag Warning isn`t
warranted.

A longer term concern for fire weather is the forecast for an
extended period of dry and warm weather for the rest of the month.
Ensemble forecasts show a very strong signal for dry weather for
most of our region through the end of the month. Which means we`re
going to have to keep an eye out for the next major wind event
when fire weather could again be a significant concern in western
Nevada.
-Zach

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Pyramid
     Lake in NVZ004.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday NVZ005.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Lake
     Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM PDT Saturday CAZ070.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Lake
     Tahoe in CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno