Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 10/11/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
The leading edge of the cold front roughly extends from KDUA to
KETN and will continue to progress southeastward through tonight
across the region. Convection has developed across the Bowie and
Glen Rose cornerposts, as well as just west of the Metroplex
terminals this evening. The timing for the main line of
thunderstorms across the Metroplex will be through 03-04Z with
lingering storms possible through 05Z. For Waco, expect the timing
of the cold front and associated convection will approach closer
to midnight. Overnight, expect light rain and post-frontal MVFR
ceilings to persist through early Friday morning.
Northerly to northwesterly winds near 20 knots with gusts close
to 30 knots will prevail through most of the forecast period. VFR
will return by mid Friday morning across the Metroplex and early
afternoon at Waco.
Garcia
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 120 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/
/This Afternoon through Friday/
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations show the strong
cold front now approaching our far northwest counties. To the
south, across North Texas, we`ve generally remain socked in with
low clouds for most of the morning, but these have begun to
scatter out early this afternoon. Temperatures are generally in
the mid to upper 80s south of the front and a few additional
degrees of warming can be expected with additional sunshine.
We have become moderately unstable across the region although
aircraft sounding data indicate a fairly strong capping inversion
remains in place. This should keep convection in check for the
next several hours as the main forcing for ascent is tied closely
to the front and the upper dynamics associated with the trough are
well to our northwest. Over the last hour, we have seen more
vertical cumulus growth in the vicinity of the cold front, and
some convection is ongoing near Wichita Falls.
For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, the cold front
will continue to make steady southeast progress with showers and
thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the evening. The combination of modest instability and
increasing deep layer shear will support some strong to severe
storms along the front. Hail and damaging winds will be the main
threat with the strongest storms. There could be some organized
bowing clusters through the late evening hours, especially along
and north of I-20. Damaging winds would be the main threat with
any bowing segments. Otherwise, we`ve adjusted the timing of the
frontal passage up a few hours based on latest observations.
Frontal timing in the Metroplex will likely be closer to 7 pm with
an earlier arrival to the northwest. The front should clear our
entire area during the overnight hours. Continued ascent atop the
deepening frontal layer will result in persistent post frontal
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms through the overnight
hours.
Temperatures will drop sharply behind the front with strong north
winds. We should see temperatures in the lower 40s to the
northwest by early Friday morning with upper 40s to lower 50s
elsewhere. Ongoing cloud cover and some continued light rain can
be expected south of I-20 through much of Friday with a gradual
clearing through the late afternoon. Highs on Friday will top out
near 60 degrees.
Dunn
.LONG TERM...
/Friday Night through Mid Next Week/
The surface cold front is expected to be well south of the area
by Friday night, making way for mostly clear skies and a precip
free night across the region. The center of the surface high
should be making its way into North Texas Friday night into
Saturday morning, helping to relax the pressure gradient and calm
the winds. These two factors will allow strong radiational cooling
to take place, particularly across Big County and the areas along
the Red River. Patchy frost is likely with some areas dropping
below freezing for the first time this season Saturday morning.
Saturday looks to be a storybook type of day with mostly clear
skies, temperatures in the mid 60s, and a light breeze out of the
north.
Things start to change Sunday night as a weak trough moves into
the area from the southwest. This will develop widespread cloud
cover in the mid levels over top of the cold and dry airmass on
the surface. Isentropic ascent overtop of the cool airmass will
help to provide sufficient lift to produce isolated to scattered
showers Saturday night and Sunday across much of North and East
Texas. The elevated nature of the precip and modest lapse rates
aloft will help to prevent widespread thunderstorms from
occurring. Little to no precipitation accumulation is expected
given the dry sub-cloud layer promoting evaporation in the light
precip.
Continuing into early next week, the pattern becomes more zonal
with broad (and weak) ridging aloft over the South Central CONUS.
On the surface, return flow starts to establish itself across our
area as broad leeside troughing develops as the surface high
resides to our east. This will act to increase the temperatures
(and humidity) early next week across the area with afternoon
highs peaking in the mid 80s Monday and lower 90s Tuesday.
Short wave pertubations embedded in the mean flow will move
through early next week allowing scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoons.
More widespread precip is expected Tuesday afternoon as deep-
layer moisture moves into the mid and upper levels from the
Pacific. The moisture surge will also be accompanied by a
transitory shortwave trough moving in from the north and weak
PVA ejecting out of Northern Mexico. The increased dynamics aloft
will act to induce leeside cyclogenesis across West Texas late
Monday afternoon...allowing the attendant cold front to make its
way into North Texas Tuesday night. Beyond this, there is much
uncertainty regarding the evolution of this system once it
advances into North Texas. The general consensus amongst ensemble
guidance is that a deep trough will dive through the Eastern
CONUS by mid next week, allowing a stronger cold front to move
through Tuesday night dropping the temperatures for the middle to
latter part of next week.
Bonnette
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 137 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019/
/Friday Night through Mid Next Week/
The surface cold front is expected to be well south of the area
by Friday night, making way for mostly clear skies and a precip
free night across the region. The center of the surface high
should be making its way into North Texas Friday night into
Saturday morning, helping to relax the pressure gradient and calm
the winds. These two factors will allow strong radiational cooling
to take place, particularly across Big County and the areas along
the Red River. Patchy frost is likely with some areas dropping
below freezing for the first time this season Saturday morning.
Saturday looks to be a storybook type of day with mostly clear
skies, temperatures in the mid 60s, and a light breeze out of the
north.
Things start to change Sunday night as a weak trough moves into
the area from the southwest. This will develop widespread cloud
cover in the mid levels over top of the cold and dry airmass on
the surface. Isentropic ascent overtop of the cool airmass will
help to provide sufficient lift to produce isolated to scattered
showers Saturday night and Sunday across much of North and East
Texas. The elevated nature of the precip and modest lapse rates
aloft will help to prevent widespread thunderstorms from
occurring. Little to no precipitation accumulation is expected
given the dry sub-cloud layer promoting evaporation in the light
precip.
Continuing into early next week, the pattern becomes more zonal
with broad (and weak) ridging aloft over the South Central CONUS.
On the surface, return flow starts to establish itself across our
area as broad leeside troughing develops as the surface high
resides to our east. This will act to increase the temperatures
(and humidity) early next week across the area with afternoon
highs peaking in the mid 80s Monday and lower 90s Tuesday.
Short wave pertubations embedded in the mean flow will move
through early next week allowing scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoons.
More widespread precip is expected Tuesday afternoon as deep-
layer moisture moves into the mid and upper levels from the
Pacific. The moisture surge will also be accompanied by a
transitory shortwave trough moving in from the north and weak
PVA ejecting out of Northern Mexico. The increased dynamics aloft
will act to induce leeside cyclogenesis across West Texas late
Monday afternoon...allowing the attendant cold front to make its
way into North Texas Tuesday night. Beyond this, there is much
uncertainty regarding the evolution of this system once it
advances into North Texas. The general consensus amongst ensemble
guidance is that a deep trough will dive through the Eastern
CONUS by mid next week, allowing a stronger cold front to move
through Tuesday night dropping the temperatures for the middle to
latter part of next week.
Bonnette
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 60 41 66 52 / 100 40 5 0 30
Waco 50 58 43 66 52 / 100 60 10 10 20
Paris 47 57 36 63 46 / 100 50 5 0 20
Denton 45 60 34 65 49 / 100 30 5 0 20
McKinney 46 59 36 64 48 / 100 40 5 0 20
Dallas 48 60 42 65 52 / 100 40 5 0 30
Terrell 49 59 40 65 49 / 100 50 10 5 30
Corsicana 51 57 43 66 52 / 100 60 10 5 30
Temple 51 57 45 65 51 / 90 70 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 46 60 35 65 49 / 70 30 5 0 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
22/24