Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 09/10/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
858 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019
.UPDATE... /MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TONIGHT/
Update for this evening should indicate no significant changes as
about half of the forecast area still has a low chance of overnight
showers or storms. Best chances look to be west of Hwy 83. Higher
coverage of rain over West TX doesn`t look to contain any mcv
activity, so the potential to shift east is only expected for western
parts of Val Verde county.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/
AVIATION...
Most if not all the shower activity will be over by 00z and will
start the TAF package off with dry conditions. Another round of MVFR
ceilings is expected by daybreak before breaking out around 15-16z
once again. Moisture levels will remain elevated tomorrow and
therefore some additional showers and storms will be possible. Will
include a PROB30 group to account for this threat. Otherwise,
southeast winds will be in the 10-15 knot range for the most part.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
across portions of Lee, Fayette, and Lavaca Counties earlier this
afternoon along a subtle precipitable water gradient. Visible
satellite imagery shows some enhancement to the cumulus field farther
west of this gradient and still expecting additional shower
development through the afternoon and early evening hours. However,
expect coverage to taper off from east to west given the
aforementioned moisture gradient. Midday aircraft soundings out of
Austin and San Antonio show a fairly dry low-level layer of air
(below 900 MB) with surface dew point depressions of nearly 30
degrees. As additional heating allows for subsequent updraft
development, evaporational cooling will help further accelerate
downdrafts and allow for at least a localized gusty wind threat
through early evening. Precipitable water values in excess of 1.5
inches east of Highway 281 will also mean some of these storms will
be capable of brief heavy rain. Will have to watch the Rio Grande
Plains during the early evening hours for any ongoing convection
across the lower Trans Pecos that is able to drift into it.
Loss of daytime heating will limit rain potential overnight with
only a few warm air advection showers possible across the Coastal
Plains by sunrise, but water vapor imagery shows a closed mid/upper
level low churning over South Central Texas. Not only could this
produce a few nocturnal showers closer to the center of the
disturbance across the Rio Grande Plains overnight, but this feature
will keep at least low chances for rain in the short term forecast.
Lows in the low 70s to mid 70s will rise into the upper 80s to mid
90s during the afternoon on Tuesday with another round of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms from late morning to early
afternoon. May see slightly higher coverage during the day tomorrow
east of Interstate 35 given the proximity of the mid/upper level
disturbance. Similar to today, stronger cells that develop will be
capable of gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Expect rain to linger a
bit longer into the overnight hours on Tuesday as the mid/upper low
begins to open up over the region with lows Tuesday night in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
As the mid-level weakness lingers over South/South Central Texas
Wednesday and Thursday, daily isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist with greatest coverage likely focusing
along and near the sea breeze. This will help keep highs in the mid
80s to mid 90s, but mid/upper ridging builds back west Friday into
the weekend allowing for warmer and drier conditions to reestablish
for the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 95 75 94 74 / 10 40 20 30 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 94 74 94 73 / 10 40 20 40 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 93 74 92 73 / 10 40 20 40 20
Burnet Muni Airport 73 92 72 91 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 76 94 74 93 74 / 20 20 40 30 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 95 73 94 73 / 10 40 20 30 20
Hondo Muni Airport 73 95 73 94 73 / 10 30 30 40 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 94 73 94 72 / 10 40 20 40 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 96 75 96 74 / 20 40 20 40 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 76 94 76 93 76 / 10 40 20 40 30
Stinson Muni Airport 76 93 76 92 76 / 10 40 20 40 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...Hampshire
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks