Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 09/09/19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
703 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019
.AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
Rapid refresh models were fairly consistent in generating a late
afternoon round of convection near and just east of the SAT/SSF
terminals for today. This gives more confidence in the depiction of
30 percent coverage for the event expected tomorrow which should be
more broad and impacting AUS as well. Winds should trend slightly
lower than those of this afternoon, but a few gusts to near 20 knots
remain possible for the next couple hours. The continued onshore wind
pattern should enable another 4-6 hour round of mvfr cigs along I-35
and about a 3 hour period at DRT, beginning around 09Z or 10Z along
I-35 and around 13Z at DRT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Area radars are clear at this time with the exception of an isolated
storm over the Mexican Mountains. This trend may continue for the
next few hours as a strong cap is in place over the area and
confirmed with the latest aircraft soundings from the San Antonio and
Austin airports. However, area forecast soundings do show the cap
weakening a bit next few hours for any shower or storm to develop
during that time frame. We are carrying low PoPs along the I-35
corridor in case they do form. Also, there is a slight chance for a
shower or storm to develop across the southern Edwards Plateau early
this evening with some of the HiRes model supporting the activity.
Otherwise, a warm night is in store with overnight lows in the mid
70s for the most parts.
Rain chances will be increasing on Monday and especially for the
eastern half of South Central Texas during the afternoon period.
Increased low level moisture in combination with an upper level low
pressure system entering the south Texas coast and then moving
towards our area will create those conditions needed for shower and
thunderstorm activity. Showers and storms move to the western half
of the area on Monday evening to mainly affect the southern Edwards
Plateau and parts of the Rio Grande.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Rain chances continue for much of the work week as the upper level
low remains over our area with a deep flux of moisture coming in from
the Gulf of Mexico as southerly flow dominates through the period.
Wednesday and Thursday activity could be enhanced by an upper level
trough moving across the Southern Plains. An associated frontal
boundary is forecast to push across central Texas during the period,
however it dissipates as pushes back to the north.
An upper level ridge builds across the area on Friday into the
weekend while keeping dry weather conditions across the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 95 75 94 75 / 10 20 20 30 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 95 74 93 73 / 10 20 20 30 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 94 73 93 73 / 10 20 20 30 20
Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 73 91 72 / 0 20 20 20 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 76 94 75 / - - 20 10 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 75 96 74 95 73 / - 20 20 30 20
Hondo Muni Airport 75 97 74 96 73 / 10 20 20 30 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 95 74 94 73 / 10 20 20 30 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 96 75 96 75 / - 20 10 40 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 76 94 76 93 76 / 20 20 20 30 30
Stinson Muni Airport 76 94 76 93 76 / 20 20 20 30 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...04